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August 29, 2012 at 4:54 PM Today was another example of mediocre, directionless trade. We came within 1 point of teaching the 1417/1418 Weekly Trading Zone on the upside, and by midnight found support inside the 1405/1406 WTZ. Overall range for the day on the S&P 500 Emini Futures - 11 points.
emini futures, emini podcast August 26, 2012 at 8:28 PM Friday the S&P 500 Emini Futures made a stunning recovery at our lowest Weekly Trading Zone as discussed in the Thursday night Partner's Meeting.
Last week we discussed just how close we are to all time historic highs in the S&P 500. Friday's closing price of 1410.50 (inside a Weekly Trading Zone) puts us roughly 140 points away from the highest levels ever reached. Some would suggest that given the anemic economic conditions which currently exist world wide, something is a little off with this picture.
We wrote an article Trading The Golden Cross earlier this year. It stated that from a historical perspective markets do rally in Presidential election years. Over the past 112 years (28 election years) the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has produced an average gain of 7.3%. Toss out 2008 when we were already in the midst of a recession and it jumps to 8.8%. Two-thirds of the periods were positive for the market, while election years with major losses were rare. Election years that showed double-digit gains outnumber those with double-digit losses by nearly 3:1 – and only one of those double-digit losses occurred after 1940.
August 26, 2012 at 8:23 PM Thursday night is Partner's Meeting. No written commentary tonight. To listen to today's broadcast just click the headphones above.
emini futures, emini podcast August 22, 2012 at 9:54 PM Is there really a Leading Indicator? One specific market that signals the world that the S&P 500 is about to make a move? Until today I was pretty steadfast in my argument that the answer was "No". If you've listened to the show for any length of time you know my list of reasons is itself quite lengthy not the least of which is that if there was such a thing, we would all know about it and would each be trading from our own sovereign nation (island). Argument #2 on the list and probably the most sound is the markets would simply cease to exist as everyone would be exploiting the same edge rendering it useless.
Have I changed my mind? No. However, based on some input today from one of our Partners and a few other seasoned traders there does seem to be one idea that just might have some merit.
aud/jpy, emini futures, leading indicator August 22, 2012 at 12:36 AM He who looks too hard, may miss the obvious.
The S&P 500 presented two exceptional opportunities today before noon. Both of these trades are examples of the "Simple Trade" Video series.
You've been watching as I cover the last month moving forward 1 day at a time, 1 trade at a time. I thought I would fast forward tonight and show you what happened today.
August 20, 2012 at 7:55 PM E-Mini S&P 500 Futures reacted cautiously to the rhetoric concerning the German Bundesbank’s view of the European Central Bank’s potential bond buying program! Germany has shouldered much of the debt crisis in the Euro Zone and may be a bit of the “lender of last resort” in this plan.
There is still a sentiment of prospective easing as traders await further indications of potential Federal Reserve action at the summit taking place at the end of the month and the European Central Bank meeting in September. This week, we look forward to housing data that is expected to show both the existing and new home sales climbing to 4.89 million unit annual rate from the 4.72 million unit rate in June.
emini futures, emini podcast August 19, 2012 at 10:48 PM We've been talking about how incredibly quiet it is in the market lately. How quiet is it?
In the latest edition of The Gartman Letter, Dennis Gartman passes along this line from Charles Brady of the Fox Business Network:
Since August 3, over the next 8 sessions the Dow traded as high as 13,223.01 and as low as 13,094.96 for a range of 128 points, or 0.98 percent. In percentage terms that is the narrowest 8-day trading range since at least 1950. I couldn't check back any further than 1950, but I think the point is clear. No conviction, no volume, truly the dog days of summer on Wall Street!
That quiet. 62 years worth.
emini futures, emini indicators August 16, 2012 at 5:31 PM Special Thanks to Burton Malkiel for graciously joining our discussion regarding Efficient Market Theory and his book "Random Walk Down Wall Street".
Mr. Malkiel is a Professor at Princeton, Noted Author and Market Participant.
If you have read the post How To Spot Market Tops you know the answer. We can now state factually that we do have a Double Top. Does that mean we have a Market Top? No. We could, but we won't know for a few days.
burt malkiel, double top, spot market tops August 15, 2012 at 8:33 PM 
August 14, 2012 at 11:38 PM In the world of trading there are few absolutes. Here are a few simple tips to help spot major market tops.
Tip #1) Don't go looking for it. If you spend your days looking for the next major market top you will not only miss a lot of opportunities, you will also get it dead wrong more often than not. Spend your time learning to trade whatever the market presents. Each day it will bring you something new and different, something to challenge you, something to change you. Look back over the history of whatever market you are interested in and get a perspective of how many major market tops there have been and then consider the odds of when the next one could happen along and ask yourself what skills you will need to not only know that it is transpiring, but to execute and manage it successfully.
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