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« A Simple Affordable Method For Trading Emini Futures | Main | Burton Malkiel / Random Walk Author Live 11AM Eastern »
Thursday
Aug162012

Today's Interview With Burton Malkiel

(QQQ)(DIA)(SPY)(GLD)(FB)

Special Thanks to Burton Malkiel for graciously joining our discussion regarding Efficient Market Theory and his book "Random Walk Down Wall Street".

Mr. Malkiel is a Professor at Princeton, Noted Author and Market Participant.

 

Market Top Or Double Top?

 

If you have read the post How To Spot Market Tops you know the answer. We can now state factually that we do have a Double Top. Does that mean we have a Market Top? No. We could, but we won't know for a few days.

 

(ES) S&P 500 Emini Futures

 

Keep in mind the market has worked hard 4 1/2 months to get to this point. With the exception of today, we have seen narrow range daily candles which is a sign of slowing momentum. On top of that we have experienced declining volume...

 

SP 500 Emini Futures Daily VolumeS&P 500 Emini Futures Daily Volume

 

Aside from today's show of strength, we need to ask ourselves if the market could potentially be a little tired up here. Compare the spike in price on the chart below with the volume chart above.

 

Average True Range(ES) Average True Range

 

Over the past 9 trading days we have an ATR - Average True Range of 10.4. If you remove the past 9 days from the study, the ATR jumps above 18 where it has been rather consistently for many months. If there is a breakout be cautious. The opportunity for intra-day trades could be excellent, but until we see some additional confirmation either way, we will take a "wait and see" approach to any longer time frame trades. Numbers that were Tweeted earlier this week to take advantage of a potential breakdown will be revised upwards.

 

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Emini Podcast for Thursday 08/16/12

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