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« Emini Podcast For Monday August 27, 2012 | Main | Emini Podcast For Thursday 08/23/12 »
Sunday
Aug262012

The Week Ahead In Emini Futures

(QQQ)(DIA)(SPY)(SLV)(FB)

Friday the S&P 500 Emini Futures made a stunning recovery at our lowest Weekly Trading Zone as discussed in the Thursday night Partner's Meeting.

 

The Week Ahead In Emini Futures

 

Last week we discussed just how close we are to all time historic highs in the S&P 500. Friday's closing price of 1410.50 (inside a Weekly Trading Zone) puts us roughly 140 points away from the highest levels ever reached. Some would suggest that given the anemic economic conditions which currently exist world wide, something is a little off with this picture. 

We wrote an article Trading The Golden Cross earlier this year. It stated that from a historical perspective markets do rally in Presidential election years. Over the past 112 years (28 election years) the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has produced an average gain of 7.3%. Toss out 2008 when we were already in the midst of a recession and it jumps to 8.8%. Two-thirds of the periods were positive for the market, while election years with major losses were rare. Election years that showed double-digit gains outnumber those with double-digit losses by nearly 3:1 – and only one of those double-digit losses occurred after 1940.

Triple Top Threat?

The Triple Top is a take on the Head and Shoulders trading pattern.

A Triple Top is three peaks interrupted by sell-offs between rallies. Volume tends to decline from the first peak to the second, and from the second to the third, something we've talked about quite a bit over the past few weeks on the Daily Radio Broadcast.

Here's a pattern 14 years in the making -

Now let's take a big picture peek at the peaks...

S&P 500 Weekly Trading Zones - Week In Review

Globex and Monday Session SP 500(ES) Globex and Monday Session S&P 500

 

Markets were very quiet on the Sunday night Globex open remaining flat in the 1414/1415 WTZ. As we headed into the London open Monday morning, Futures ran up to the 1418/1419 WTZ hitting 1418 to the tick and then reversing to find support at the 1410/1411 WTZ. We then bounced back to the 1414/1415 WTZ where the market spent the next 14 hours traveling sideways in and around the 1 point Zone.

 

(ES) Tuesday(ES) Tuesday

 

Tuesday the market spent 6 hours treading water at the 1418/1419 WTZ before exploding higher and giving us one of our best Hourly Candlestick Patterns of the entire week. This pattern spiking just above the 1421/1422 WTZ set the stage for lower prices and we weren't dissapointed. In one of the larger daily moves we've seen in some time, price finally found support down at the 1407/1408 WTZ. Utilizing smaller time frames you can also see the multitude of trading opportunities that presented themselves between Zones on the way down.

 

Wednesday(ES) Wednesday

 

Wednesday the market found support at the 1407/1408 WTZ and played an extended game of ping pong with the 1410/1411 Zone. On the chart each number (1-8) represents a 2 point move. That's 16 points if you caught them all. Very unusual activity but it was and has been very unusual for several weeks now. These are potentially the smallest Weekly Trading Zones we've been dealt since CFRN began. Resistance for the day came at the 1418/1419 WTZ which quickly turned down and came to rest in the 1414/1415 WTZ.

 

Thursday(ES) Thursday

 

Thursday price once again hit 1418 to the tick just as it did on Tuesday. From there it was straight down to our lowest Weekly Trading Zone at 1397/1398. During the Partner's Meeting the question was asked - "What happens if we break down below the lowest weekly zone?" The answer was simply "Look for the opportunity to get long because based on over 2 years of history we will close back above 1397/1398 before the session ends on Friday.

 

Friday(ES) Friday

 

And that's how it played out for the week.

Tiny Zones - Tight Ranges - Still Good Trading!

 

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Emini Podcast for Friday 08/24/12

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