Emini Futures Trading / SP Closes At Multi-Year High

Again, Read the tape and quit trying to buck the trend…1300 is on the horizon

We walked into the morning session with the indices lower because the Bank of China raised there reserve requirement.  Asian markets were trading lower which set the stage for a lower opening.  Restricting the money supply put pressure on commodity prices overnight, especially gold and silver which couldn’t recover and finished the day down 2%-3% and on its backside for the week.  JP Morgan reported before the opening bell and beat expectations thus lifting financial stocks along the way.  Then we were hit with a slew of mixed economic reports.  Retail Sales rose 0.6% in December but missed the forecast.  Consumer Confidence fell to 72.7 from 74.5 but the street was expecting something better.  Consumer Price Index or CPI rose 0.5% in December, the largest increase since June 2009.  Whew, that was a mouth full.  How do you make a trading decision based on all that?  My advice, you don’t just look at a chart.

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Emini Futures Trading / SP 1300 In Focus

from the trading desk of CFRN

Retail traders leave your opinions at the door!  Next stop 1300

 On the economic front today we had a few things that rocked the boat.  Weekly Unemployment claims missed the mark, claims jumped +35,000 last week to the 445,000 level or a 2 month high.  The Producer Price Index or (PPI) reported an uptick in wholesale prices of 1.1% in December (no kidding???- heck my babysitter is asking for more money).  Last night the BOE and ECB left rates unchanged as widely predicted and Bernanke at an FDIC forum says he sees lending to small business picking up this year.  Now that our minds are filled with this fundamental information, what does that mean and how do we use this to our advantage? 

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Emini Futures Trading | Inside Day

Inside Day today leaves speculators uneasy! Yesterday, we were off to a great start with the E-Mini S&P500 reaching a high of $1272.50. Turn-around Tuesday somehow lacked the enthusiasm. We fell short of the optimism hitting a high of $1270.00. Note the low of the day was still higher than yesterday; hence, an “Inside Day”! Analysts may view the day as profit-taking as the extension yesterday from the December bullish trading in the E-Mini S&P 500 warranted some profit-taking. Another thought may be that the tangibles such as Crude Oil and the Agricultural Markets may have been pressured by the stronger US Dollar. Factory Orders rose, but the Federal Reserve Officials still find the economic recovery weak. The major concern is still unemployment. Until we see a sustainable growth that employs the varied sectors with full-time work, we still are vulnerable.

Tomorrow, we look forward to ISM Non-Manufacturing Index at 9:00 AM CST. The market seems to look forward to the Initial Jobless Claims Thursday to confirm any bullish sentiment.

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Emini Futures Trading | The January Effect

Let’s talk January effect! Each year we look for it!  It is a calendar motivated market move to study.  It is based on price behavior seasonally expecting the stock market to trade lower in December and increase in January.  It does not always work out.  One basic theory is that for tax purposes, speculators may sell their positions in December and re-establish them in January.    We kicked off the 1st trading day of the year with a high of $1272.50 for a high (Note the high of our CFRN Weekly Trade Zones)!  Besides the technical points, US Manufacturing grew to 57 from 56.6 in November showing a steady 17 month rise.  Construction Spending came in higher as well confirming a bullish sentiment for the day.

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Emini Futures Trading | Rare Statistical Anomaly

The Energizer bunny keeps going and going and going……With help from the energy sector and a few economic reports today, the SP EMINI ground out another new high.  Crude oil and products were lifted with a drop in inventories today.  Crude regained the $90 level and that lifted energy stocks.  3Q GDP was the first report that came out today with mixed reviews.  The commerce department reported growth in the 3rd Quarter expanded at a 2.6% pace however the street was expecting closer to 3% growth.  Experts say we need growth to be higher in order to get the unemployment situation under control.

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