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Sunday
Jan022011

Emini Futures Trading | The January Effect

(QQQQ)(DIA)(SPY)(GLD)($SPX)

from the trading desk of CFRN...

Let’s talk January effect! Each year we look for it!  It is a calendar motivated market move to study.  It is based on price behavior seasonally expecting the stock market to trade lower in December and increase in January.  It does not always work out.  One basic theory is that for tax purposes, speculators may sell their positions in December and re-establish them in January.    We kicked off the 1st trading day of the year with a high of $1272.50 for a high (Note the high of our CFRN Weekly Trade Zones)!  Besides the technical points, US Manufacturing grew to 57 from 56.6 in November showing a steady 17 month rise.  Construction Spending came in higher as well confirming a bullish sentiment for the day.    The Global Economic Outlook was viewed as positive today. This of course coincides with the expectations later this week for a good Initial Jobless Claims, Retail Sales etc on the slate for Thursday and Friday.  Asset rebalancing should also keep the outlook positive for the E-Mini S&P 500 as Fund Managers look to allocate more money to commodities perhaps.  It will be contingent on some further positive data coming in.  We are off to a good start.

Tomorrow brings Factory Orders at 10am EST and FOMC Minutes at 2pm EST.

Today's chart

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