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March 14, 2012 at 9:07 PM (QQQQ)(DIA)(SPY)(GLD)(SLV)
The S&P500 Emini Futures have spent the last 32 hours without touching a Weekly Trading Zone. We are in the upper area of a 20 point range and the bulls are running like it's Spring in Pamplona. If you're going to run with them, just make sure you don't trip over the Vix. Tomorrow night I hope to cover as time permits, some information on both the VIX and the VXN as provided by our Co-host Mike Reed of TradeStalker and our good friend Garrett Jones.
S&P500 Emini Futures
I know it doesn't feel like it, but you and I have just spent the last 3 years in one of the greatest bull runs in history. Really?
On March 9, 2009, the S&P 500 Cash Index closed at a 12-year low of 676.53, marking the bottom of the worst bear market since the Great Depression. The intra-day low as we well remember was 666. No, I'm not making that up. In fact, that's part of what made it all seem so ominous. The end is here, the sky is falling, life as we know it is over. Housing crashed, the war didn't go well (any of them), banks collapsed, Greece defaulted, need I go on?
Three years later the economy is improving, corporate profits are booming, and the S&P 500 has almost doubled. So where's the love? Are we mad because we missed it? (that's the empirical we) I think we just have a hard time believing it actually happened at all. Yet it really did...
In fact not only has the market doubled in 3 years, it did so climbing a wall of worry and from where I sit it looks more worrisome than ever. The S&P 500 traded at 14.1 times earnings on March 1. That’s the lowest valuation of any 52-week market high going back to 1989. Trading volumes are down, and investors are pulling money from mutual funds that invest in U.S. stocks. Trading on the New York Stock Exchange has declined to the lowest level since 1999. Investors pulled more money from mutual funds that buy U.S. stocks than they deposited for a fifth straight year in 2011.
Will China have a hard landing? Will the US double dip? Will Europe disintegrate?
S&P500 (ES) Futures 03/14/12
I don't know. I do however firmly believe that by close of business tomorrow the S&P500 Emini Futures will touch 1377 or 1396. That's as far as I can see for now and when I put my ear to the ground all I hear are hoofbeats....
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