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Emini FuturesCast / The Daily Pod  09/19/11


S&P 500: A proliferation of contagion?

At the risk of sounding redundant, the day was constrained by fear of default by Greece! The first part of the day was bracing for a potential default and later, the slight relief rally came as Greece’s Finance Ministry stated that they were near an accord with their international lenders to continue to receive bailout funds. Athens was encouraged to decrease its public sector and step up on tax collection.  Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos reported a “productive and substantive” dialect with the leaders of the European Union and the International Monetary Fund. Without the secured loans, the Greek nation would perhaps run out of funding by mid-October. It would in a sense be like a house of cards.  Italy may for example hold Greek bonds and fall prey to the effects of a potential default. A larger economy may lead to further weakness in the Euro Zone, hence leading to “contagion”. Finance ministers from the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) will meet this week to discuss support measures for the Euro Zone. The European Financial Stability Facility will possibly be the solution provider to a degree as they have extended capabilities going into October and may initiate further programs to sell bonds. German lawmakers are to vote on September 29th on whether the European Financial Stability Facility may buy government bonds in the secondary market. They may have powers to give loans and lend to recapitalize banks. The bleak outlook had many investors going into the Treasury’s, US Dollar and cash today, the gold market had even lost its luster. While contraction of global economies seems inevitable and the fate of nations rest on the will of others, the US looks forward to our FOMC! Whether we get a twist or a QE, the traders wait for the trade signal, short or long, but standing aside is a position also!

On the stock side:   PHLX oil service sector was down 2.6 to $85.70.  Citigroup Inc. was down 4.4 to $27.71.  Apple Inc.  was up 2.8 to $411.63.  Caterpillar Inc. was down 1.5 to $84.60.

Tuesday, we have US Housing Starts and Permits at 7:30 AM CST.  FOMC begins through Wednesday!

Leslie Burton
Senior Market Strategist


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Emini Podcast for Monday 09/19/11

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