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Monday
Jan072013

Emini Podcast | Episode #1,570 - Are We There Yet?

(QQQ)(SPY)(AMZN)(GOOG)(FB)

 

Markets Looking For A Top - Are We There Yet?

 

Stocks began the year with a bullish push. There's an old adage that so called "calendar money" or "new money" comes into the market over a 3 day period. That explains the big gap open we saw on Wednesday January 2, the first trading day of 2013. It also explains what we saw on both Thursday and Friday. The question today as the markets opened was "What happens when the new money dries up?"

The chart below is a Globex 24 hour chart of the S&P500 Emini Futures. 

 

(ES) S&P500 Daily Chart

 

This chart clearly show the gap mentioned earlier. On 01/02/13, first trading day of the new year, we saw not only a gap open, but a gap and run. In other words, the bullish sentiment exhibited at the Globex opening bell which was 5AM CST due to the holiday, continued throughout the day and we closed just off the highs. On Thursday 01/03/13, second trading day of the new year, we saw a slightly higher high, but the session closed with a bearish (red) Doji. Friday 01/04/13, final day of the first trading week of the new year, the bulls returned to close the market at the highest level in 5 years.

This represents the 3 calendar days of the new money we spoke of earlier. Monday's candle (day 4) has a name, it's called the Hanging Man. Yes, it is an ominous indication for Bulls. My read is that while it does fall within proper context, I would like to have seen a slightly higher high to confirm my bearish suspicions. The Globex session is now underway for Tuesday and as you can see we are already testing the lows of Monday prior to the European open.

I was asked in a public forum if I thought the ship was sinking. My reply was "No, but it does appear we are taking on water." For a more detailed chart of why this top is important have a look at the chart I posted on Friday. Once you review the triple top on that chart, have a look at this one.

 

SP500 Triple TopS&P500 Triple Top    Source: JP Morgan

 

 

 

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Emini Podcast for Monday 01/07/13

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