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Tuesday
Sep112012

Hourly Wages For Emini Traders

(QQQ)(DIA)(SPY)(GLD)(FB)

Unlimited earning potential is what attracts many traders to the world of Emini Futures Trading. We then quickly learn there is another side to that coin. Let's forget about getting rich overnight and see if we can earn a decent living just getting paid by the hour.

 

Hourly Wages For Emini Traders

 

We accept that there are very few absolutes in the world of trading. However, with the advent of Globex and 'round the clock global markets, we would be hard pressed to find any hour in any given day that does not present at least a small opportunity in one of the markets we watch. If we are going to seize those opportunities we will need to reboot our thinking process. Our instincts tell us to swing for the fences but if we can learn to become content with just getting on base, we have a much higher probability of building  a successful career.


In baseball a  batting average higher than .300 is considered to be excellent, and an average higher than .400 a nearly unachievable goal. The last player to do so was Ted Williams of the Boston Red Sox, who hit .406 in 1941. Now this "batting average" is based purely on how many times you hit the ball. It doesn't matter if you hit a single, double, triple or home run. You can literally bunt your way to the Baseball Hall of Fame. Players don't get famous for base hits, but they sure do get paid.

Maybe you're wondering why Ted Williams record has been unbroken for 71 years? There's a lot of theories but a very simple idea is that too many players are overly focused on knocking it out of the park and end up not hitting the ball at all. Let's put that .300 in perspective - You step up to the plate 10 times, you get 30 swings, and you actually hit the ball 3 times. That's right, you strike out 7 out of 10 times and you are considered "excellent".

How does that compare with the pressure you  put on yourself when you step up to your trading desk? We may not get a bobble head working for an hourly wage, but if we slow it down perhaps we can at least get ahead. Below is a 1 hour chart from today -

 

SP500 Emini Futures (ES) Hourly Chart

 

As we head into the London open we have a very strong Bull Candle that breaks up through the Weekly Trading Zone 1427/1428. Candle #1 tested the top of the WTZ where we anticipate support. During that hour there was 3.25 points of movement. Candle #2 also came back to test support at the top of the WTZ and contained 2.25 points of movement. Candle #3 tested the same support level to the tick and closed the hour 4 points higher at 1432. Candle #4 pulled back to find support at our CF_MA1 the backbone of the CFRN Indicator Set. From support at 1429.25, price rallies the following hour for 5.25 points. The following hour we see a 4.25 point continuation of the rally and we also run into the area where we anticipate the potential for resistance. Weekly Trading Zones are always areas where look for the market to consolidate or reverse. This WTZ was 1435/1436. Candle #5 was an inside candle with a bearish close inside the WTZ. Candle #6 was a Doji inside the WTZ.

As we were closing the Radio Broadcast today we highlighted and explained the trade setup that was in front of us. Simply being short at 1435 was the idea. We discussed 2 places for our stops, just above Candle #6 or above #5 to give it a little extra wiggle room. As it turned out a stop loss order above Candle #6 was perfectly adequate. Our initial downside target was 1430 where David had suggested he might be willing to initiate a short position. We liked the idea of being short and chose to frame it with a higher entry. Our second target was the obvious WTZ down at 1427/1428 where we saw hours of action earlier in the day. Price dropped to 1428.50, 2 ticks shy of the Zone but still good for a 6.5 point move over 4 hours. In fact, Candle #7 was itself alone good for a 3.5 point move.

I encourage you to Download Our Charts so you can go over these numbers yourself. We never take seriously the magazines, emails, or websites that boast how you can use their magical system, only work an hour a day and earn untold riches. However, in all fairness, there was not a single hour today that did not offer at least some opportunity. The question is, "Are you willing to work for the hourly wage?" Can you be satisfied just to get on base?

As your confidence increases you will most probably over time increase the number of contracts that you are comfortable trading. As that number grows then the humble base hit proves itself not only to be doable, but potentially quite profitable as well.

 

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Emini Podcast for Tuesday 09/11/12

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