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Saturday
Dec082012

Violently Sideways | Emini Zero Sum Week

(QQQ)(DIA)(GRPN)(FB)(SODA)

 

Emini Futures Zero Sum Week

 

The high of the week came early Monday at our Weekly Trading Zone 1421/1422. This area was not tested again until Friday morning when America awoke to the joyous news that high unemployment was a thing of the past. (until revised)

 

S&P 500 Weekly High

 

As the week progressed our Weekly Zone at 1408/1409 became the center of gravity for the markets with our 1415/1416 Zone acting as resistance until the Friday rally when it once again became solid support.

From Zone to Zone to Zone... that's how the market rolls.

 

SP500 Weekly CloseS&P500 Weekly Close

 

As mentioned in the Sunday night Tweet and also on the chart above from Friday, we did have the "short lived spike". How short? To the naked eye it would appear that it took an hour for price to advance from the 1408/1409 Zone up to the 1421/1422 Zone. Even though an hour would be considered "short-lived" in the grand scheme of things, such things are not always as they seem.

To find the answer to this market riddle, you would need to drill down to a 30 minute chart. When that didn't work you would drop to a 15 minute chart. Severely perplexed you would then be forced down even farther to a 10 and then even a 5 minute chart. At this point you are convinced that your charts and / or data feed must be broken. Relax...

 

SP500 3 Minute ChartS&P500 3 Minute Chart

 

Mystery solved. The market showed more volatility in 3 minutes on Friday than it showed all week. Once the dust settled the closing tick for the week was 1417.25. The opening tick for the week was 1413.25. That gives us an effective weekly range of just 4 points inside a lot of bluster.

Which brings us right back to the opening Tweet of the week last Sunday night...

 

 

 Looking Ahead 

As we move into the new week, closer to the holidays and the potential Santa Claus Rally, the big question facing the markets is "Will we close the year over 1500.00 as Goldman Sachs has predicted?".
Lets look at the question from a weekly perspective - 

 

SP500 Weekly ChartS&P500 Weekly Chart

 

On the weekly chart we had a call for lower prices on the week of September 28th. The call came at 1434.25 and the ensuing swing low came on the week of November 16th at a price of 1340.25 for a 7 week drop of 94 points. The week of November 30th brought a call for higher prices at 1415.75. The swing high so far has been 1424.00.

 

On the daily chart we are still awaiting the call for higher prices.

 

SP500 Daily ChartS&P500 Daily Chart

 

November 7th brought a call for lower prices at 1389.75. The following swing low was 1340.25. November 19th brought a call for higher places at 1383.00. The swing high that followed was on December 3rd at 1424.00. December 3rd not only signaled the end of the move higher, it also served as the call for lower prices at 1405.75. The swing low following was 1396.75 on December 5th.

 

Friday's close was literally too close to call. If we blow it up to poster size we can see the call for higher prices actually is there. However, we prefer to see a little more conviction. We will look to be long above 1424.50. If Sunday night or Monday, we fail to penetrate 1424.50 we will reevaluate the long side of the market. Should the market mover lower on the Globex open we will look to be short below 1408.00.

 


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Emini Podcast for Friday 12/07/12

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