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« Emini Podcast | Episode #1,558 | Main | Pre Fed Fibs Fuel Emini Rally »

Fed Rally Fails - Emini Podcast | Episode #1,557



Fed Rally Fails - Trading The News Can Be Tricky Business


As surmised in our previous post,  , QE4 is now underway and traders are scratching their head as they try to determine if the Evans Twist is good, bad or a trick. Along with QEinfinity, the Ponzi scheme has escalated to include the purchase of $45B of treasury notes each month on top of the QEi commitment to purchase $40B of mortgage backed securities.

It was announced last week by the Chinese government on a Chinese web site that China has a new toy. It amounts to a very large gun and it's pointed at America. Notoriously cryptic about the extent of its nuclear arsenal, China announced the launch on chinamil.com.cn a Chinese military news site. The DF-31A is believed to have three warheads per missile and a range of about 7,000 miles. This makes any city in America a reachable target and it can be launched from the back of a truck.

China has made it quite clear that if America defaults on our debt it will not end well. The only solution is to "print more money". This is a lot like getting a cash advance on your credit card in order to make your minimum monthly payment. The debt accumulates as crushing compound interest, and there is no escape from the inevitable default. Why do you think all the posh private schools are teaching American kids Mandarin? That's right, so they can get white collar jobs in the new red economy.

In its statement, the Fed said it will keep spending to drive down long-term borrowing costs and stimulate economic growth. Previously, the Fed said it expected to keep interest rates at record lows at least through mid-2015. Now it expects rates to stay low at least until unemployment drops below 6.5 percent – a threshold the bank believes may not be crossed until the end of 2015. This is all a huge distraction to keep China guessing as to whether or not America is going to leave them holding the bag. 

All the rhetoric over historically low interest rates and job creation is a bad joke and no one's laughing. Have you actually tried to get a loan lately? Got good credit? Got money in the bank? Have a great business model? Want to stop whining and create the jobs America desperately needs? Good luck with that. As long as banks are incentivized not to loan money, they won't. That 0.25% on excess reserves should be a penalty not a bonus. Many Americans, filled with the entrepreneurial spirit that made America great, are ready to rise up and put America back to work. However, until Congress gets around to addressing the root of the problem, you better keep working on that Mandarin and brush up on your chopstick etiquette while you're at it.


S&P500 Emini Futures


Traders ran 'em up on the Fed announcement until Hedge Fund god Ray Dalio over at the DealBook conference dropped his bomb that the only decent investment he can find is in Australian agricultural property. Whether he was joking or not, investors tuned out Bernanke's press conference and got busy liquidating positions across the board from equities to gold.

Here's the rout in the S&P


SP500 Emini Futures - Post FOMCS&P500 Emini Futures - Post FOMC



As opportunities unfold we'll keep you posted.



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Emini Podcast for Wednesday 12/12/12

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