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« Emini FuturesCast / The Daily Pod 07/27/11 | Main | Emini FuturesCast / The Daily Pod 07/25/11 »

Emini FuturesCast / The Daily Pod  07/26/11


There's not enough white space on this page to hold everything we talked about on today's show. We did however, manage to squeeze it all into one podcast. 1hour:55minutes:41seconds of the very stuff that made us famous. Just click the headphones please.

The DUH Trade
On the show today, near the end... I pointed out the chart below. (live in real-time) I said "Tonight people will look at this chart and be amazed that they didn't take the trade."

Ladies and Gentlemen, I now present said chart for your viewing pleasure -


If you were there live, or listened to the podcast, I clearly stated that many would be amazed by their failure to pull the trigger. This post has nothing to do with pointing out that the trade worked (it did) it has everything to do with pointing out how easy it is for folks to sell you a bill of goods after the fact. Anyone seeing the above chart for the first time today will absolutely go "Duh, of course I would have taken that trade". Not so fast smarty pants. I had a room full of people who saw the trade right up until the tip of the yellow arrow and many of them did not take the trade. Are they dumb, or blind? No! Quite the opposite. We have some of the smartest folks on the net, pants or not. If you were not there when it happened, scroll your chart to the hard right edge and tell me you would have taken it. Would you? If so please post why in the comment section below. If NO, please post why not.

I already know why not. But I want to hear it from you. I spill my guts every day about my own human frailties. How about you man up and spill yours...... Oh I'm sorry. Did I catch you at a bad time?

It's OK. I'm only kidding. Whether you want to type in the little comment box or not, I at least got you thinking and that was my whole point. I want you to think about what you do and why you do it. When you're done, think about what you DON'T do and why you don't do it.


I know. Freaky eh?


You're not dumb. You're not a bad trader. You're not naturally unlucky or born on the wrong day. You simply may have fallen into the "post-dictive trap". (David your royalty check is in the mail) That's right, post-dictive is the opposite of pre-dictive. You've probably heard of the latter. Well I have news for you. There's a very high probability that every trading program, methodolgy, indicator, scheme, scam,  or whatnot that you purchased in the past, used postdictive analysis to snare you. My goodness, every man has a little larceny in his heart but only when I entered the arena of trading did I see it exploited to its best and lowest use. It's like magic. And guess what........... We ALL fall for it at some point.

That's right. I said ALL.
(is he talking about himself? i think he is. ssshhh let him finish. ok)

I even fell for it in real-time. "Shut-up" they all said. No it's true. For a long time, in real time, I listened to a guru say "You might want to get out here if you're long" or "Consider getting out here if you're short" and I remember feeling like such an idiot because I was neither long nor short. Instead, I was sitting there with my hand in my lap just wishing I could only be half as clever as the guru.

<SNAP> when you awaken you will feel refreshed............

OK. I said all that to say this.

I pointed out the trade as it happened. Not before and not after. I said many people will have difficulty taking this trade. Many will wonder later why they didn't. The answer is quite simple. You're human and you've become accustomed to looking at charts after the fact. The only way to make money from historical charts is to land a job in Cramerica (aka CNBC) or become a system vendor.

What Michael and I along with our other guests want to show you, is how to look ahead. That's where the money is. Are you in this for the money or the love of the game? If you're not ashamed to say it's about the money, you should sign up for our next class -



Trade Fu'

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White Candle Alert

Before I dash I did promise the Twitter folks a chart. On the hourly we are on the watchtower. It's not here yet....... but we're watching. Once it prints I'll post a chart to the Tweeter.

We're on the backside of the ?   We have a ? We still need a ? And then a ?

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Podcast for Tuesday 07/26/11

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