Emini FuturesCast / The Daily Pod 07/13/11

(QQQQ)(DIA)(SPY)(GLD)(SLV)

by DeWayne Reeves

There are NO trading secrets! Anything any good, is already in the public domain. The key is finding someone who can help you interpret the real truth versus a vague impersonation of what walks like the truth, talks like the truth, but albeit in the light of day is mere quackery.

Ancient Trading Proverb:
Behind every great futures trader is one freakishly wealthy broker.

Be encouraged, there is hope for Battered Traders Syndrome.
My name is DeWayne, and I am a Recovering Battered Trader.

Step 1) Admitted I was powerless over the market and that my trading had become unmanageable.

There it is. Until you admit there's a problem nothing can save you.
If you admit it - WE CAN HELP!

E-Mini S&P 500:  Sell, sell,sell!

The E-Mini S&P 500 has been faced with the disheartening employment report from Friday, talks on the US Debt Ceiling and possible downgrade along with renewed contagion fears from the Euro Zone. The market seems to absorb most of the economic reports and global news with controlled moves or pauses. QE2 has ended and Federal Chairman Ben Bernanke has suggested that the Fed would consider additional measures to support the economy if the situation worsens. The potential stimulus for QE3 comes in as a double-edged sword as the consequences may have mixed results. The employment data seems to be the key to the investor sentiment as it hits home to many. The creation of new jobs in varied sectors perhaps is the missing piece of the puzzle to the economic recovery. President Roosevelt faced high unemployment post WWII and created jobs building bridges, dams, power sources and roads. The Federal Government of today has extreme deficit problems, so the same solutions for unemployment of the past may not work in these times. Moody’s has warned that if the debt ceiling is not raised by the US officials that a potential default and a loss of the AAA credit rating may be in the future.  August 2nd is the deadline that the US has been given by the Treasury. The US Dollar has succumbed to both the pressures of raising the debt ceiling and the idea of potential added stimulus.  The US government has used the idea that growth and a speedier recovery should occur in the second half of this year. The pressure of the investor sentiment looking for the improvement may impose parameters for the marketplace. We find the allocations move between the safe-haven vehicles such as the US Dollar, US T-Bonds and the precious metals. The ranges of these markets have been pretty consistent for some time.  The contagion fears of the Euro Zone as of late were fueled by the downgrade of Ireland to “junk” status. The reaction to the Euro Zone seems to be built in for the moment.  It is unlikely that a solution is found any time soon. The Euro officials do address the debt ridden countries with plans and funds for potential bailouts and long-term solutions. The austerity programs are typically not warmly welcomed by the citizens of the countries in question. It remains to be seen if the austerity programs are adhered to. The next two days are packed with economic reports in the US. Any remotely positive reports may lend support to the E-Mini S&P 500. 

Thursday, we look forward to the US Initial Jobless Claims, Business Inventories, PPI and Retail Sales at 7:30 AM CST.

The Sentiment Indicator was good for an 11 point rally off the opening pullback, and a 10 point decline into the close. Mid-day was a failure that resulted in a minimum 2 point loss. Of course it was after the close that things got really ugly. 

click to enlarge

Thursday, what to expect!  We are technically in sell mode on the Daily Chart! Thursday, we look for an inside to lower day! Today’s range was $1327.75 - $1307.25. The market settled at $1312.25. Our comfort zone or point of control for this market appears to be $1317.75. Our anticipated potential range for Thursday’s Trading could be $1315.50 - $1295.25. The market stays bearish below  $1352.00. Tomorrow is a vital day to see if we stay above the $1295.25 or slide below perhaps to revisit the 200 day moving average line which is currently at $1261.25.

Here's a stray comment from someone we know over at Business Insider - 

You Just Can't Keep A Good US Treasury Down

Jul. 13, 2011

The actors pulled off their lines perfectly. Another "near death experience" has now set the stage for a magnificent rally. The way it was all coordinated is quite stunning. When London opens for business we should get a punch on the nose that takes us down to 1290/1295 on the S&P Globex futures. A rally of 50 points between the overnight low tonight and the close of business on Friday is at least possible if not probable. That of course translates into a potential 500 point move in the Dow. Metals will pullback on the surge but as we all come to our senses by Sunday night's open, the buying dip for both Gold and Silver should be stellar. Remember, ya gotta have a ticket to win!

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Podcast for Wednesday 07/13/11