The Ultimate Leading Indicator
The indicator or other market that always leads THE market, the one all traders deperately seek, does not exist. It is a fantasy, a fallacy, a marketer's dream and a traders nightmare. I admit you were drawn here by the promising headline on somewhat false pretenses. However, in my own defense you will actually learn something extremely valuable from this post as opposed to the other sites that promise you what they can't deliver. So based on that... don't be a hater.
What you know, what you've learned, what you understand about how the market works, that's as close to a true leading indicator as you'll ever get. Some will say that Price is the true leading indicator. I say that price is merely a shadow of the decisions that traders made seconds, minutes, hours, days, even weeks ago. The price you see on the chart at this moment is the shadow cast by those decisions.
I know what you've been told TICK - TRIN - TRIX - ADX - Russell - Nasdaq the list goes on doesn't it? Chances are you've tried most of them haven't you? I'm willing to venture a guess that at some point on some day each and every one of them worked at least once. Am I right? Yet here you are still clicking on a headline that promises The Ultimate Emini Leading Indicator. Why? Because deep down as badly as you want to believe it exists and I agree it even makes sense that it should exist, yet on a much deeper level you know this search is only digging you a deeper financial and psychological hole.
The promise of a leading indicator is that it will somehow give you the heads up on what something else is about to do. A digital crystal ball of sorts. When it comes to daytrading the S&P Emini Futures we are usually looking for the leading indicator to tell us what the market will do that it is not already doing. If the market is climbing, we want a tool that tells us beforehand when it's going to drop. When the markets are plummeting we crave the toy that can predict the future and tell us the carnage is almost over and we must get ready to go long.
I could spend an entire post on how a climbing market or a falling market are the greatest indicators you'll ever encounter. Imagine if you had bought every climbing market you ever witnessed, and sold like you stole every declining market you had ventured upon, and had been merely satisfied to participate for just a little bit, would your equity curve look different than it does today?
But I digress. Most of us are not willing to trade what is in front of us, we would much rather trade the unknown up around the corner because anything else is just pedestrian at best. Our methodology trades on the certain, not the uncertain.
I better repeat that -
Our methodology trades on the certain, not the uncertain.
Rather than attempting to predict when the market will reverse, we simply wait for it to turn. I know, not much of a rush is it? You read this far to get that? Hang on, it gets better. (a little)
We do have the technology, gut instincts, and enough screen time between us to predict reversals. We also know how and where to buy lottery tickets. In fact, the next time you're in your local bodega to get those Scratch Em's or Power Balls, ask the clerk to print you out the last set of winning numbers. In one hand you hold hope, in the other a fact. As you wander out the door pause by the news rack and scan the headline. That's usually not a promise, a guess, or a theory, if it's a legitimate newspaper and not the Bachelor Beat, you are reading a factual statement - something that already happened.
When you trade with us you'll never catch a top or a bottom. Sorry. If it's adrenalin you seek, for $75 and 2 hours of training they will allow you to jump from a perfectly good airplane. Now that's a rush! I've used a lot of words to either grab your attention if you really want to succeed as a trader, or run you off if you're still in search mode.
Now to the both of you still reading this, pay close attention. The trades you are about to see happened after the turn, after the fact, after the top, or whatever you want to call it. We wait. We want to see it sprawled across our chart in Times New Roman Headline Style - THE MARKET JUST REVERSED!
Doesn't that mean it's too late to take action, it already happened? That is exactly where our path diverges from all those who've come before us and taught or sold you the Leading Indicators. Our leading indicator is not what may happen but what did happen.
Does that make us always profitable? Always successful? No it does not. But we also don't worry ourself silly about whether or not "it" will work. Because in our work, "it" already happened...
Below are just a few charts from Friday and tonight's open. If you're new to our site, I encourage you to work your way backwards through the blog. Observe the charts, watch a few videos, and if you decide you would rather trade based on what did happen as opposed to what may happen - APPLY!
S&P 500 Emini Futures Charts
(ES) Friday June 1, 2012 - 15 Point Drop (after the event)
(ES) Friday June 1, 2012 - Triple Header (after the event)
(ES) Sunday June 3, 2012 - 13 Point Drop (after the event)
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