Today's broadcast is dedicated to my friend and mentor - Lawrence G. Olson
Our timing was perfect last night on the S&P 500 Emini Futures drop. We missed the ensuing pop however by 1 point. Last night our Tweet said to consider being short the ESM2 below 1370. Price dropped 16 points to 1354 which happened to be 1 point above our 1353 Weekly Trading Zone. In hopes that redundancy will get the point across, Weekly Trading Zones are an "area". Every time price approaches a WTZ you need to be alert and prepared to shift gears. If you successfully traded some or most of the move down and completely missed the bounce, that explains why you still have that great big smile on your face.
If you weren't aware of the trade, perhaps you don't have the CFRN Emini Toolbar.
S&P 500 Emini Futures
Last Nights ES Emini Trade
ES Emini Friday 04/20/12
ES Emini Monday 04/23/12
Identify The Trend
Last night was a prime example of identifying the trend and placing a trade in the direction of the greater trend. In fact, our last 3 Tweets are all prime examples. These trades were published on Seeking Alpha as well as Twitter. If you have our Toolbar they showed up right on your desktop.
- #SP500 #Emini #Futures - Friday we said to consider selling 1378 Stop. The closing price Friday was 1365. 13 points on Friday the 13th. #es
- SP500 Emini Futures - Consider selling 1382.50 Stop. Our last Tweet dropped from 1378 to 1359.25 / just sayin' #emini #futures #trading #es
- #SP500 #Emini #Futures - Our last Tweet suggested selling 1382.50 Stop 04/18/12 @ 3:16AM. The market dropped 17 points to 1365.50. #trading
- #SP500 #Emini #futures - Consider being short below 1370.00 - 04/22/12 11:50 PDT
- #SP500 #Emini #Futures Last night's consideration to be short below 1370 dropped 16 points to 1354. (chart above)
These 3 trades had a maximum combined potential of 46 points. If we look at these trades in very small time frames it becomes difficult to determine whether the greater trend is Bullish or Bearish. Smaller time frames are the ideal tool for timing entries and exits as long as they agree with the greater trend. This is not to say that you can't use smaller time frames to make successful counter trend trades because - You Can! What's important is that you Identify The Trend so you know whether or not you're in a trend trade or a counter trend trade. Why is that important? Unless you're picking tops and bottoms, the counter trend trade will tend to be short lived while the trade in the direction of the trend has a greater chance of growing some legs and potentially travelling 13, 16, 17 points or more.
If we go back to the first trade listed on Friday the 13th, here's the hourly chart showing exactly when the trade triggered. It appears to be a beautiful pullback entry to go long right? (click to enlarge)
Let's step out to a larger time frame. This is a daily chart. This is the first short entry on a daily chart that we have had since November - December of 2011. This is not about picking the top, the trend had already shifted so when many traders had visions of being long, we were just a bit short sighted.
ES Emini Daily Chart
Drop by the Live Emini Trading Room and I will be happy to show you the other 2 trades as well. Remember, the markets are fractal in nature. The only difference between a twig and a tree is size. The only difference between an hourly chart and a daily chart is size. Yes, size matters.
Read the tree, trade the twig, and when you can take the pebbles from my....
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