Emini FuturesCast / The Daily Pod 08/10/11
August 10, 2011 at 5:20 PM (QQQQ)(DIA)(SPY)(GLD)(SLV)
Another day, another plummet. Well at least not everyone has their boxers bunched...
Obama will not nix vacation over debt crisis - AFP
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Here's the week in a nutshell...
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E-Mini S&P 500: Another conundrum!
The E-Mini S&P 500 had its selloff and snap-back rally, then just when it looked as though one may go back into the market, we have the rumors about a possible downgrade of France! The rumors spread after Standard and Poor’s downgraded the US. The contagion fears of a larger economy such as France had the market looking bleak. It brought up points such as how much of Greece’s debt does France own? An index of European banks fell 6.7% and the KBW index of US bank stocks fell 4.9%. Bank of America was down 10.9 to $110.34. SocGen fell 14.7 and BNP Paribas fell 9.5%. The three credit agencies, Fitch’s, Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s had denied the rumor stating that France’s AAA credit rating was intact. It brings up a very good point that if these rumors can generate some momentum, how can they be contained when they impact the marketplace? Who benefits from such rumors?
US Wholesale Inventories were up 0.6 to $458.7 billion following an increase of 1.7 in May. This was the smallest increase in seven months. Inventories make up a good part of the US GDP. The increase in June’s wholesale stock should support manufacturing for the balance of 2011.
The US is currently with a $1.1 trillion dollar budget deficit and is seeking further cuts to harness the out of control spending. While the picture looks bleak with the great nation brought down a notch, one has to remember that over a decade ago, Canada was also downgraded. Of course, the debt in Canada was smaller than that of the US and the measures taken were agreed upon by a more united leadership. Out of the 16 countries that held the AAA credit rating, the US had been the only one existing without a parliament system. Our country has existed as a powerhouse of a representative democracy since 1917 holding that AAA credit rating. The Treasuries are still one of the most coveted safe-haven investments globally as one can see by the recent highs. The weekly high for the US T-Bonds has been $139^27 this week. The Chinese still hold at least 1.1 trillion in US debt instruments. This is a case of one hand washing the other as it would not be in the best interest of China to liquidate their positioning. It certainly will be a struggle to climb out of the US debt crisis, but we have seen historical booms following the hardest of times and believe that this too shall pass!
Thursday, we have US Initial Jobless Claims and US Trade Balance at 7:30 AM CST!
Thursday, what to expect! We are technically still in sell mode on the Daily Chart! Thursday, we anticipate an inside to lower day! Today’s range was $1178.75 - $1113.75. The market settled at $1123.50. Our comfort zone or point of control for this market appears to be $1145.50. Our anticipated potential range for Thursday’s trading could be $1155.00 - $1096.00. The market stays bearish below $1185.25.
Leslie Burton
Senior Market Strategist
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