E-Mini S&P 500; Inside to lower day with lighter volume?
The E-Mini S&P 500 had an inside to lower day as we had anticipated. Volume seems light as traders try to keep up with the global newswires to decipher the extent of impact each “crisis” may have on the market. We had the Euro Zone debt crisis which is still looming in the shadow at times, then we have the unemployment and housing market woes of the US, then the earthquake and tsunami from Japan creating destruction and now NATO has come forward to declare the “no-fly zone” in Libya as the fighting between the loyalists and rebels heat up. Maummar Gaddafi is anxious to overtake the rebels by sending air support to incapacitate the rebels. The UN Security Council had voted on the issue and 10 out of the 15 members had agreed to issue the resolution. Their agenda focused on the issue of protecting civilians, but at what cost? Gaddafi threatens retaliation. The question is on whether other Middle East countries will also look at this resolution as an intervention that is overstepping the boundaries of NATO. The threat of nuclear meltdown seems to be a project in the works as the technical staff at the power plants in Japan. The Japanese people are resilient and have the financial ability to cope with the repair necessary after the devastation of the earthquake and tsunami. Estimates will be coming in for quite some time. Fears have possibly kept some traders sidelined and the market seems to be in a downward trend. This may be a good time to point out that the E-Mini S&P 500 has inclined since August 2010 and that the retracements have been slight. A 50% retracement would take us back to $1152.00. Perhaps the bulls are stepping aside to see if a washout in the light of various “crisis” is forthcoming. The bears have been taking it on the chin since August. It is likely that the conviction of a weak market is jaded by previous strengths.
Todays, US Initial Jobless Claims fell by 16,000 to 385,000. The consumer price index in January increased 0.4 percent, following a 0.4 percent jump in December. Overall Industrial Production in February slipped 0.1 percent, following a revised 0.3 percent gain the prior month. The capacity utilization rate for total industry edged down 0.1 percentage point to 76.3 percent.
Friday, we have no major US economic reports due out.
Friday, what to expect! We are technically still in sell mode! Today’s range was $1274.50 - $1241.25. The market settled at $1268.75. Our comfort zone or point of control for this market appears to be $1266.25. We remain bearish as long as we stay below $1308.00 according to the Daily Chart. What we anticipate is an inside to higher day as the market is drastically oversold. Tomorrow is Friday and some of the shorts may wish to offset their positions going into the weekend. Note: the downward trend is still in place, but it is perhaps necessary for the market to retrace somewhat. The news on the wires is still fearful, but the market only reacts to the price action of the traders and the allocations will shift. Earlier this week, we saw the allocations flow into the Treasuries. Tomorrow, the allocations may flow into the tangible markets and the E-Mini S&P 500. Our anticipated range $1287.50 - $1248.00.
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When money speaks, the truth keeps silent.
- Russian Proverb-