The WINNING STREAK IS OVER!
What a difference a day makes. In the SP EMINI we just about wiped out 2 weeks of gains in 1 day. Additionally, the DJIA almost made it to nine straight weeks of gains but the news out of Egypt and Ford (F) put an end to it. Commodity prices went into defensive mode with a move higher in the US Dollar, Treasuries and Gold. Crude oil jumped 4% with uncertainty in the region.
The news was well advertised today so I am not going to regurgitate what was said. The question is “what is in store for Sunday night or Monday morning”? All bets are off when we have uncertainty, but let’s cut up the chart for potential price points.
Trade Between the Lines
The outside reversal day and the close obviously puts the bears in charge, however keep in mind we're still in a larger uptrend so the bulls are going to emerge at some point in time. Where? Looking at the hourly chart, view the low on 1/20/11 or the 1267.50 level as an area of support (1267/1265). If the news gets worse in Egypt, we could have an abrupt drop which takes us down to the 1255.00 level, look at your daily chart and draw an uptrend line. 0382% retracement is also a level of interest or 1249.00. Now were do I get short if I think the top is in? Bearish view, key reversal on a daily chart today and if you look at your basic momentum indicators like RSI and Stochastic there is some evidence of “bearish divergence “. Which simply means the market is creating higher highs but not with the same momentum, energy and sometimes volume. Kickbacks would be ideal to sell into because we can cut down on the risk. Go to hourly chart, a revisit of the hourly trend line or the 1285-1287 will be a likely area to get short.
Stay Alert Stay Alive
Burton R. Schlichter
Senior Market Strategist
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