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Monday
Jan242011

Emini Futures Trading / PPT Hard At Work Ahead Of Speech?

Earnings and the material sector keep us positive on the day!

Without any major economic news today the focus was on earnings and the chart. Intel had a share buy back program to renew some optimism. Shares of Alcoa were up 4% as they forecast further demand. Copper demand was also up based on China’s growth. Other stocks were mixed. The real question is whether this  market can penetrate $1296.25 ? This particular zone becomes pivotal in the direction of the E-Mini S&P 500 as traders size up the bulls and some of the key components of a bull market. 

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Friday
Jan212011

Emini Futures Trading / Swing Batter Batter

Which way do I go, which way do I go? Without any major economic news today the focus was on earnings and the chart. The big news which drove the Dow to new highs was the earnings surprise from GE; the stock was up over 7% today. Bank of America (BAC) reported a 4th quarter loss and was down 2%.  The technology sector or the Nasdaq was weighed by the semiconductors. As a whole we had a divergent market, the Dow pushed higher and the Nasdaq dropped lower putting the SP EMINI in the middle of the tug of war. Technically speaking we hit several key levels so there was plenty of volatility which = opportunity.  The Weekly Trading Zones (WTZ) at the 1284/1285 level and the 1280/1279 level offered opportunities to the CFRN listeners.

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Thursday
Jan202011

Emini Futures Trading / Retracement Or Reversal?

Retracement or Reversal? We failed to penetrate the $1296.25 again in today’s session! The market double topped there two nights ago on the 5 minute chart.  It was an inside to lower day today breaking through the low of $1277.00 to reach a low of $1267.00.

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Wednesday
Jan192011

Emini Futures Trading / Full Moon Double Top

President Obama met today with China's smiling president Hu Jintao and confronted him about China’s dismal human rights record, its history of technological piracy and the manipulation of its currency. He insinuated that Hu is simply the front man for a vicious communist apparatus that uses that nation’s 1 billion+ impoverished citizens as dispensable workers to create wealth for itself in the international trading system.
(you wish)

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Tuesday
Jan182011

Emini Futures Trading / Markets Nicely Dressed For Rich Uncle Visit

$1300.00, here we come! There were no significant economic reports out today, so that meant that we could focus on earnings! Apple shares are in focus as Chief Executive Steve Jobs is taking a third medical leave since 2004. The stock took a bit of a tumble in Frankfurt, -8 . Citigroup dropped -5.5. Standard and Poor’s debt rating agency ruled out any possible US Government Debt Default, but the issue is still being debated in Congress regarding the debt ceiling.   

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Monday
Jan172011

Emini Futures Trading / Will The Market Ever Drop Again?

I've officially given up my vainglorious quest to be the smartest guy in the room. Today, I'm quietly content just knowing which one he is. Here's what he thinks...

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Friday
Jan142011

Emini Futures Trading / SP Closes At Multi-Year High

Again, Read the tape and quit trying to buck the trend…1300 is on the horizon

We walked into the morning session with the indices lower because the Bank of China raised there reserve requirement.  Asian markets were trading lower which set the stage for a lower opening.  Restricting the money supply put pressure on commodity prices overnight, especially gold and silver which couldn’t recover and finished the day down 2%-3% and on its backside for the week.  JP Morgan reported before the opening bell and beat expectations thus lifting financial stocks along the way.  Then we were hit with a slew of mixed economic reports.  Retail Sales rose 0.6% in December but missed the forecast.  Consumer Confidence fell to 72.7 from 74.5 but the street was expecting something better.  Consumer Price Index or CPI rose 0.5% in December, the largest increase since June 2009.  Whew, that was a mouth full.  How do you make a trading decision based on all that?  My advice, you don’t just look at a chart.

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Thursday
Jan132011

Emini Futures Trading / SP 1300 In Focus

from the trading desk of CFRN

Retail traders leave your opinions at the door!  Next stop 1300

 On the economic front today we had a few things that rocked the boat.  Weekly Unemployment claims missed the mark, claims jumped +35,000 last week to the 445,000 level or a 2 month high.  The Producer Price Index or (PPI) reported an uptick in wholesale prices of 1.1% in December (no kidding???- heck my babysitter is asking for more money)Last night the BOE and ECB left rates unchanged as widely predicted and Bernanke at an FDIC forum says he sees lending to small business picking up this year.  Now that our minds are filled with this fundamental information, what does that mean and how do we use this to our advantage? 

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Tuesday
Jan042011

Emini Futures Trading | Inside Day

Inside Day today leaves speculators uneasy! Yesterday, we were off to a great start with the E-Mini S&P500 reaching a high of $1272.50. Turn-around Tuesday somehow lacked the enthusiasm. We fell short of the optimism hitting a high of $1270.00. Note the low of the day was still higher than yesterday; hence, an “Inside Day”! Analysts may view the day as profit-taking as the extension yesterday from the December bullish trading in the E-Mini S&P 500 warranted some profit-taking. Another thought may be that the tangibles such as Crude Oil and the Agricultural Markets may have been pressured by the stronger US Dollar. Factory Orders rose, but the Federal Reserve Officials still find the economic recovery weak. The major concern is still unemployment. Until we see a sustainable growth that employs the varied sectors with full-time work, we still are vulnerable.

Tomorrow, we look forward to ISM Non-Manufacturing Index at 9:00 AM CST. The market seems to look forward to the Initial Jobless Claims Thursday to confirm any bullish sentiment.

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Sunday
Jan022011

Emini Futures Trading | The January Effect

Let’s talk January effect! Each year we look for it!  It is a calendar motivated market move to study.  It is based on price behavior seasonally expecting the stock market to trade lower in December and increase in January.  It does not always work out.  One basic theory is that for tax purposes, speculators may sell their positions in December and re-establish them in January.    We kicked off the 1st trading day of the year with a high of $1272.50 for a high (Note the high of our CFRN Weekly Trade Zones)!  Besides the technical points, US Manufacturing grew to 57 from 56.6 in November showing a steady 17 month rise.  Construction Spending came in higher as well confirming a bullish sentiment for the day.

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