Emini FuturesCast / The Daily Pod 07/21/11

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It's complicated. Listen to the show and you'll understand. Yes. We covered the markets. ALL of them.

Partners meeting gotta' run...

E-Mini S&P 500: Selling opportunity!  

The E-Mini S&P 500 is gleaning the optimism on the “progress” of the US talks on the debt ceiling, the accord by the leaders in the Euro Zone for measures to bailout the debt-ridden countries and the earnings reports coming in. The cup appears to be half-full as the market has risen since turn-around Tuesday. The claims filled out by Americans seeking unemployment benefits had risen this week 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 418,000. This was nothing out of the ordinary, but the numbers were in range and not worsening. This is a case of the market responding optimistic over “steady” as opposed to way above the norm. The Conference Board Leading Economic Index increased 0.3 % to 115.3, which is the indicator in the US often used to forecast future economic activity. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank reported its business activity index  was up 3.2 from being down 7.7 the previous month. President Obama and his “gang of six” are still working on the debt ceiling talks that must be concluded by August 2nd to retain the AAA credit rating.  Standard & Poor’s credit rating agency had given the US a 50/50 chance that the credit rating may be downgraded within the next 3 months. While we consider the ramifications, please note that many countries have lost their triple AAA credit ratings such as Japan that still may enjoy lower interest loans and still may be regarded as a stable economic nation. Perhaps the idea that our leaders of one nation only, may not agree on issues to affect the future of America  would be the most troubling thought. After all “United we stand, Divided we fall" has been a motto used since the days of Aesop’s fables. 

Another boost for the market came from the stock sector! Morgan Stanley was up 10.4 % to $23.98.  KBW Capital Markets index was up 2.9 %. American Express was up 0.3 % to $52.27 before the opening bell.  Nokia was up 2.2 % to $5.92. Transportation stocks had also come in better as Union Pacific Corp. reported better quarterly profits and was up 4.6 % to $104.40. Biotechnology stocks had also helped as Alexion Pharmaceuticals Inc. was up 9.1 % to $56.77.    

China is typically regarded as a strong economic leader in the recovery and is used on occasion to forecast the demand of products and services. The HSBC flash PMI, an early indicator of economic activity in China, was down to 48.9 in July which was the lowest reading since March of 2009. Other tidbits!  The International Energy Agency announced that it would not release any additional Crude Oil into the marketplace. The news buoyed the Crude Oil market back up to around $100.  

The Euro Zone has so far come up with extensions on the loans for Greece and more flexibility for the European Financial Stability Facility to deal with the debt problems. The Euro Zone bailout fund may provide loans to Greece, Ireland and Portugal with a lower interest-rate for longer-term.  The 2nd bailout for Greece may consist of around $109 billion euros. The anxiety and fears of investors were lifted as the Euro FX  had lifted from around $1.4100 to $1.4400. While positive for the Euro FX, the US Dollar sank today under the pressures of the US talks and the positive news coming from the Euro Zone.

Friday, we have no major US economic reports due out!

Friday, what to expect! We are technically in buy mode on the Daily Chart! Friday, we look for a possible inside to higher day! Today’s range was $1343.50 - $1315.00. The market settled at $1342.50.  Our comfort zone or point of control for this market appears to be $1333.00. Our anticipated potential range for Friday’s trading could be $1349.50 - $1326.50. The market stays bullish above $1292.25. We are potentially looking to sell the rallies tomorrow!

Leslie Burton

Senior Market Strategist

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Podcast for Thursday 07/21/11

Trade Update

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Emini FuturesCast / The Daily Pod 07/20/11

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Big Show Today! Is the Art in the Chart? Or in your head? We went cycling in Cameraville and met the Boy in the Bubble and discussed the Intelligence of Life. Yes, we also covered the markets.

Weekly Zones defined the early range and the hourly chart put us in place for a beautiful short trade. Check the tweet feed for the video. Below I will post the updated video which will also appear on the Tweeter. After tonight we will probably swith from Twitvid to our Vimeo account. I had no idea you had to watch a 60 second commercial to see my humble 2 minute video. I'll fix that.

E-Mini S&P 500: Expectations have their limitations!  

The E-Mini S&P 500 is on a teeter totter of factors that can push the market either way! Expectations for a decision from our US Government on the debt ceiling issues weigh on the market as concerns spring up toward the August 2nd deadline. While Fitch’s rating service feels the likelihood of a default is slight, there is still nothing completed on the $3.75 billion budget deal. There are three major credit reporting agencies, Fitch’s, Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s. Positive earnings reports had given the boost that the market needed for a relief rally yesterday as the US June Housing Starts were up 14.6 % to a seasonally adjusted 629,000 units, which was the highest level since January. Building Permits were up 2.5 % which was the highest since December. Multi-family units were up 30.4 %. Today, the National Association of Realtors reported that Sales fell 0.8 % last month to an annual rate of 4.77 million units.  This is the third month that this fell and the lowest since last November. Canceled contracts were up 16 % well above the average 9 – 10%. While we are in the midst of earnings season, the reports have been mixed. There are some stellar reports such as  Apple Inc. with their increased sales of iPads and iPhones had reported revenue up to $28.57 billion for the third quarter overshooting the analysts’ estimates of $24.99 billion. Apple Inc. today was up 3.3 % to $389.21. Yahoo Inc. was down 7.6 % to $13.48. Microsoft Corp. was down 1.7 % to $27.06. US Bancorp was up 4.4 % to $26.14. United Tech shares were down 2.3 % to $86.80. Textron was up 8.2 % to $23.93.  AMR Corp was up 2.4 % to $5.05. Boeing Co. was up 2.7 %  to $72.43. Intel Corp. reported the June quarter to be up 22 % to $13.1 billion, well above expectations. Intel shares traded down 1.52 % to $22.64. 

The Euro Zone leaders are to meet on the debt resolution shortly and the options are not limited. The head of Austria's Central Bank Ewald Nowotny suggested that The European Central Bank may be willing to accept Greek bonds as collateral in the event of a short-term “selective default”. He went on to suggest that there are more options without necessarily having negative outcomes. It is thought that the Euro Zone may not be as reliant on the credit reporting agencies when dealing with the economic reforms. President Jean Claude Trichet and the 16 other Euro Zone leaders have usually experienced progress on each of their summits that have supported the Euro FX at $1.4100. The Euro Zone leaders are attempting to complete a second stimulus for Greece of about 110 euros but there still are issues that remain unresolved. The resolve will be welcomed by traders, but more importantly the performance of the Spanish and Italian bonds should also be considered. 

When we deal with a variety of major issues in the marketplace, we cannot begin to anticipate the results of the decisions of nations and earnings/economic reports. The trader sentiment may find a comfort level in simply a healthy stock sector. Learning to trade off of the price action in the marketplace can potentially prevent emotional trading that has been a downfall for many a trader!    

Thursday, we have US Initial Jobless Claims at 7:30 AM CST!

Thursday, what to expect! We are technically in sell mode on the Daily Chart! Thursday, we look for a possible outside day! Today’s range was $1329.75 - $1319.25. The market settled at $1321.25. Our comfort zone or point of control for this market appears to be $1322.50. Our anticipated potential range for Thursday’s trading could be $1338.50 - $1300.50. The market stays bearish below $1343.00. We could cover a wide range as traders may see a variety of factors coming into the market tomorrow. We intend to be prepared to take the trend changes for short day trades!

Leslie Burton

Senior Market Strategist

Podcast for Wednesday 07/20/11

Late Night Emini VideoCast 07/20/11

Emini FuturesCast / The Daily Pod 07/19/11

(QQQQ)(DIA)(SPY)(GLD)(SLV)

Grumpy old men and the women who love them. Is a coin toss really a random event? Is a price bar? Grab your boots cause it gets pretty deep as the hummingbirds return to the Ganges. Plus we cover the markets. All of them!

Last night's blog post and suggestion... 23 points later.

E-Mini S&P 500: Strong earnings give the bulls control!  

The E-Mini S&P 500 had been under pressure as the US Government talks concerning the debt ceiling appeared to be deadlocked. President Barack Obama had relieved some the pressure today in his comments about “progress” in the talks. Positive earnings reports had given the boost that the market needed for a relief rally. To continue the sentiment, the US June Housing Starts were up 14.6 % to a seasonally adjusted 629,000 units, which was the highest level since January. Building Permits were up 2.5 % which was the highest since December. Multi-family units were up 30.4 %. The US housing and employment sectors have been the two challenges of our recovery and today’s report had given a brighter outlook on the growth and recovery of the US.  Employment is still the key to bringing back the healthy economic picture, but the manufacturing and production growth should lead the way for employment to return to the US.  US earnings reports have been paramount to the higher trade of the indices today! Apple Inc. with their increased sales of iPads and iPhones had reported revenue up to $28.57 billion for the third quarter overshooting the analysts’ estimates of $24.99 billion. International Business Machines Corp. was up 5.7 %.  Wells Fargo also was up 5.7 %.  Coca Cola was up 3.3 % to $69.32. The optimistic growth outlook had given the Crude Oil a bullish slant today as well, which may perhaps continue tomorrow as the American Petroleum Institute showed inventories to be down this week by 5.2 million barrels.

The Euro Zone struggle continues, yet the summit on Thursday may again contain the debt problems temporarily. The head of Austria's Central Bank Ewald Nowotny suggested that The European Central Bank may be willing to accept Greek bonds as collateral in the event of a short-term “selective default”. He went on to suggest that there are more options without necessarily having negative outcomes. It is thought that the Euro Zone may not be as reliant on the credit reporting agencies when dealing with the economic reforms. President Jean Claude Trichet and the 16 other Euro Zone leaders have usually experienced progress on each of their summits that have supported the Euro FX at $1.4100. The Euro Zone leaders are attempting to complete a second stimulus for Greece of about 110 euros but there still are issues that remain unresolved. 

Wednesday, we have US Existing Home Sales at 9:00 AM CST!

Wednesday, what to expect! We are technically in sell mode on the Daily Chart! Wednesday, we look for an inside to higher day! Today’s range was $1324.25 - $1300.25. The market settled at $1321.25.    Our comfort zone or point of control for this market appears to be $1313.75. Our anticipated potential range for Wednesday’s Trading could be $1338.50 - $1300.50. The market stays bearish below $1345.25. Turn-around Tuesday has us looking for a higher market. Higher earnings may have spurred the buying action today, but the bulls continuation should keep the price action higher for Wednesday.

Leslie Burton

Senior Market Strategist

Podcast for Tuesday 07/19/11