Friday, Unemployment and Retracements!
The E-Mini S&P500 is really making the bulls work for their points. Two days ago, we reached a high of $1306.00, since then, the market has been reluctant to power through the $1306.00 high. Eventually, it should, but tomorrow perhaps is a bit too soon especially with the Unemployment number coming out at 7:30 AM CST. The number itself may be bad, but more importantly, will it be better or worse than market sentiment allows. Today, the Initial Jobless Claims fell by 42,000; the ISM grew to 59.4 which points to a recovery with a bullish future. The market did pause though! It did not penetrate the previous high. (The high of the day being $1305.75.) The E-Mini S&P 500 keeps grinding higher with about a 20 point retracement to note. The Egyptian crisis seems to dominate the news wires. Whenever, we see riots in the streets in a faraway land, we know there is more to it than meets the eye. These strategic changes can bring changed alliances and affect the inter-relationships of the varied countries. Until the unrest is brought under control, the E-Mini S&P500 may have difficulty climbing to higher ground. The unemployment rates of each country affect us as the violence may be transposed to our own streets. The IMF stands by to aid and the Euro Zone has brought up a global poverty fund type entity to make sure that no one goes hungry. The US Dollar and the Gold Market benefited from the unrest. The low of the day was $1291.505 for the E-Mini S&P 500. $1300.50 should be the comfort level or point of control for this market.
Between the Lines
Tonight I decided to focus on something we don't talk about much - the CF_TC Indicator. The CFRN Indicator Set is comprised of 5 different indicators, all performing some very complicated mathematical calculations behind the scenes. Our indicators do all the heavy lifting allowing you to focus on managing your trades. Whilst the indicators work well together, each indicator also has the ability to stand alone across multiple markets and multiple time frames.
Quite simply, the CF_TC Indicator detects a change in the current trend.
I'm going to show you a 6E Euro Futures 30 minute chart of this week. I could have gone back and found a "picture perfect" week but I'm actually trying to smash the mirrors and blow away the smoke. I have highlighted every change of trend this week including the overnight Globex session. Have a look first and we'll continue the discussion...
What I've done is created a worse case scenario based on blindly buying every blue candle and selling every red candle with a "stop and reverse" philosophy. I've used this example as it calculates not the "potential" of every trade but clearly shows just how bad it could have been. Some trades which are calculated as a loss, could in fact have been exited with a nice profit. I'm staying up late to blog this because All Free Trials will expire in 1 week. I want you to understand the power of the indicators and the math that drives them. While I'm blogging, Michael is busy creating videos to make sure everyone has all the information they need to make an informed decision before next Friday.
There's no cherry picking on the chart above or the numbers below.
A to B was a long trade (Blue Candles) based on entering at the open of the 2nd Blue Candle (reality). You could have exited up at 1.3734, however if you waited for the CF_TC Indicator to signal a change (Red Candle), you got out much lower at 1.3680. That's a difference of 54 ticks/pips. Yes my friend, you left 54 precious pips on the table. That's my point, on this chart I'm showing you the worst case scenario based purely on the indicators with no woulda' coulda' shoulda' shenanigans. I suppose I could apologize that our algorithm cost you 54 ticks of "possible profit" but it still managed to get you out with 84 ticks of Real Profit and quite frankly, I'm OK with that. Are you?
Each move below follows the same logic...
B to C / Short / -34 ticks
C to D / Long / +113 ticks
D to E / Short / +29 ticks
E to F / Long / -15 ticks
F to G / Short / -23 ticks
G to H / Long / -20 ticks
H to I / Short / +156 ticks
Net Results = 290 ticks/pips x $12.50 per = $3,625.00 per contract
(past performance in no way guarantees future results - kapeesh?)
Could this performance have been enhanced by using the CF_MA1?
Could this performance have been enhanced by using the CF_Cycle?
Could this performance have been enhanced by using the CF_DMT?
Could this performance have been enhanced by using the CF_SR?
Could this performance have been enhanced by using the Weekly Trading Zones?
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What to expect tomorrow! We focus on Egypt and our Unemployment Report. Egypt is not going away any time soon. After all it took 30 years to develop. The Unemployment situation will be our focus. We would expect a potential spike upon the report. It would not be a surprise to see the high of the day tomorrow at $1314.00, but being a bit more of a pessimist perhaps $1296.00 may be revisited.
Three rules of work:
Out of clutter find simplicity;
From discord find harmony;
In the middle of difficulty lies opportunity.