Emini Futures | Brick And Mortar - The New Economy?

(QQQ)(SPY)(GLD)(TSLA)(FB)

by DeWayne Reeves

Brick And Mortar - The New Economy?

Two back to back days of positive housing data have the markets looking a bit optimistic. Pending home sales rose 5.9% in May hitting a two-year high, adding to other recent positive reports from the battered sector including yesterday's S&P/Case-Shiller data showing U.S. home prices rose 1.3% in April.

If tonight's blog had a soundtrack > the Commodores unforgettable Brick House.

Before we get too carried away let's not forget that this is the same Brick and Mortar business, along with a few shady bankers, that played a huge role in creating the current economic muck we find ourselves mired in. On today's Live Daily Broadcast we talked about some interesting housing numbers. 3 of the hardest hit areas in the nation - Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Miami, all have what appear to be very low inventories of available single family homes.

• Las Vegas - 5,211 (6 week supply)
• Phoenix - 8,800     (2-4 month supply)
• Miami - 11,403       (2-4 month supply)

Shadow Inventory - Fact or Myth?

Many people believe the low numbers are because banks are holding foreclosed homes off of the market in an effort to drive up Valley home prices.

Professor Michael Orr of the ASU Real Estate Studies Department doesn't believe that.

"I actually keep a file of exactly what houses the banks own and what they're doing with them," he said. "When you actually count them out, it's a relatively trivial amount that they actually own that they haven't already listed for sale."

As for banks having a so-called "shadow inventory," Orr said it's just not in the cards.

"It's not possible," he said. "To own a house, you have to have a deed. A trustee doing the foreclosure writes a deed and records it with the county. You can get those and examine them and see when the bank disposes of the property. It's not really 'in the shadows,' it's public information."

If this is true then Brick and Mortar may once again be the oldest game in town, but bear in mind that we are dealing with global economic woes that extend far beyond the beleaguered real estate market.

If inventory really is shrinking, and prices are up by some accounts as much as 33% in certain areas, at current interest rates this looks like a pretty good trade. We said it was attractive 2 years ago. Today it's hard to resist. Keep in mind that the EU Summit starts tomorrow and the Fed will be closely watching the unemployment numbers as a barometer for further easing.

Housing recovery is by no means a day trade, but at the end of the day we all need a place to call home.

S&P 500 Emini Futures

The CFRN Weekly Trading Zones were once again kind to our Partners today. 

(ES) Emini Futures Hourly Chart 06/27/12

Remember, CFRN Partners have the Weekly Zones before the market opens every Monday. Apply for our Free Trial and put these numbers to work in your Emini Futures Trading. No Obligation - No Credit Card Required - Financing Available.

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Emini Podcast for Wednesday 06/27/12

Emini Futures | Are Currency Futures Better Than Forex?

by DeWayne Reeves

Are Currency Futures Better Than Forex?

Currency markets are the most liquid and active markets of any sector. However, there is also a great deal of misinformation, slick advertising, and even outright deception regarding this $2 Trillion Dollar a Day marketplace. For starters, a large percentage of that $2 Trillion is traded through what is referred to as the interbank market. The interbank market is the top-level foreign exchange market where banks exchange different currencies. This trading between banks is not accessible to retail traders and is estimated to account for the vast majority of the Trillion Dollar liquidity factor that attracts so many retail traders in the first place.

Our platform and proprietary indicator set performs well in both Currency Futures and Spot Forex. While we are more than happy to accommodate and train Forex Traders, we do prefer the Currency Futures as a trading vehicle. Here are a few of the reasons why:

• Diverse customer base trading on one platform
• Level playing field for all participants
• Performance and reliability of Globex network
• Deep liquidity in both Futures and Options
• Safety and security of central clearing

There are 54 futures and 31 options contracts based on major and emerging-market currencies, such as the Brazilian real, Chinese renminbi, Korean won and the Turkish lira. Market participants have the ability to mitigate risk with currency futures' longer dated currencies and benefit from the significant margin offsets available.

If your Forex brokerage firm uses a dealing desk, your buy and sell orders never actually reach the true Forex market.  In other words, you do not have access to the inter-bank market.  Instead you are buying and selling at prices set, and potentially manipulated by the dealing desk.

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange guarantees each transaction.  This means that if you go long a currency futures contract and your speculation was correct, you will walk away from the trade with your profit even if the person that took the other side of the trade fails to pay.

Whether you are a large institution or an individual trader, everyone is on equal footing when it comes to pricing currency futures. Best price wins, it is as simple as that — something that is not always the case in the fragmented OTC FX market.

One of the primary draws of retail accounts to Forex is the idea of commission free trading.  FX brokerage firms working with a dealing desk make money on the fixed pip spread offered to clients, but don’t charge a commission.  On the surface, this seems to offer discounted transaction costs relative to the futures market. However, it is important to note that the typical FX pip spread of 3-5 pips provides the brokerage firm with a handsome reward.

It is important to note that even though transactions costs in the futures market are much more visible, they are likely not more than in Forex.  CME currency futures do not involve a fixed bid/ask spread.  Instead, the spread adjusts to the market’s liquidity.  The front month is typically a 1 point spread.  In the case of the Euro currency futures one point is equal to $12.50.  Forex firms offering a fixed 3-5 point spread may not be charging traders commission outright, or even in a form that shows up on an account statement, but there are significant costs built into the synthetic market that they provide to you.

Invitation To Forex Traders

If you currently trade Spot Forex, you are invited to download our Currency Futures Trading Platform with Live Real-Time Data at no charge. Use our platform, trading simulator and proprietary indicators for a full week (no C.C. required) to see for yourself if your currency trading can become more reliable, more predictable, and more profitable.

During the week you are also invited to join us in our Live Trading Room every trading day from 9AM-11AM Eastern. We will teach you exactly how we use our indicator set in a live market setting. We do call live trades in the room. It is important to note, we employ very strict entry criteria when placing a trade. The price at which we are entering any trade is announced "to the tick" before the trade is placed. Once executed, we then monitor, discuss and answer your questions regarding the trade as it moves to either our target or our stop.

To take advantage of this no-obligation offer today, simply Apply!

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Emini Futures | The Mind Of A Trader

(QQQ)(DIA)(SPY)(GLD)(SLV)

by DeWayne Reeves

Those who trade for a living or are about to switch careers soon, come to realize that emotions can be a huge influence on bottom line success. Some would even say it’s as much as 90% of the trading mindset.

You may have money in an account somewhere (Daniels Trading), you may have a state of the art platform (dtPro), you may even own the finest proprietary Emini Indicators in this galaxy (CFRN), but unless you fully embrace the first paragraph of this post, you my friend are hopelessly lost. (I wanted to say doomed but that seemed a bit dark) So what else could a trader possibly need? So glad you asked...

The Mind Of A Trader

Each individual brings to the table a plethora of emotional baggage based on beliefs, values, and past experiences. Whether they‘re good or bad ones trading will dish them all out and impact each part of the trade.

On top of all that, our human conditioning over time establishes how we feel about being right and wrong, winning verses losing and success verses failure. Unknowingly they sometimes get instilled in our mind in the form of “Blocks”.

Blocks can inhibit our ability to be in control.  What is a “Block”?

Blocks can come from many different past experiences and if strong enough have a tendency to influence each and every part of the trade. They also are not isolated to new traders but can appear at ANY time during a traders career.

How does one insure that they posses the Mind of a Trader?

A great place to start is with this very simple TEST 

S&P 500 Emini Futures

Here we go again. The market just keeps doing what the market does, our system keeps grinding out trade set-ups and I keep reporting the results. If this sounds like a sales pitch grab a Q-tip. What you need to hear and see is that my goal is to show you that there is no boogeyman. I'll write more on this topic tomorrow. 

Suffice it to say there are many places where you can buy systems, indicators, and prophetic messages. Our goal is to help you understand How the Market Works. I'm about to show you once again how it works. It may appear that I'm attempting to simply prove to you that our "Emini System" works, but if you know me, you know how much I detest that term. Why? Nothing works all the time yet everything works some of the time. There is however, one huge exception - THE MARKET

The market always works. Never calls in sick, never complains, never asks for a vacation or time off, other than federal holidays. If you've ever owned a business, ran your own HR Dept., had to make a Payroll, or be stunned by Payroll Taxes, then you know exactly what I mean. Despite its ups and downs the fact that the market fearlessly "shows up" for work everyday no matter what, makes me not want to employ it, or beat it, I want to partner with it. Sure, business partners have their differences, in fact when two men in business agree on everything one of them isn't necessary. Ponder that...

Change your thinking, change your life. Change your life, change the world. DR

Lot's of systems work, but until you understand how the market works, your chance of success using any system from Gann to Fibonacci to Elliot Wave is at best a remote possibility. As you observe the charts below, forget that we even have a system.

I'm simply showing you the market at work...

(ES) 05/31/12 click to enlarge

(ES) 05/31/12 Part 2

(ES) 05/31/12 Part 3

If you understand the markets, have the proper tools and possess the mind of a trader, you can actually succeed in the business of trading. However, until you bring these 3 things together, the puzzle will never become the picture on the box.

• If you are sick and tired of being sick and tired, send me an email - support@cfrn.net

Not only will I personally step in and get you started, I will make you a very special offer.

• Tired of waking up with a knot in your stomach? - support@cfrn.net

• Your Future in Futures is literally a mouse click away - support@cfrn.net

Send me a compelling email and along with everything we already offer our new Partners and I will give you 2 hours of personalized instruction.

(If you believe nothing else, believe this - This offer will expire as soon as I come to my senses so ACT TODAY! as the sales pitch goes.)

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Emini Podcast for Thursday 05/31/12

Emini Futures | Realistic Trading Expectations

(QQQ)(DIA)(SPY)(GLD)(SLV)

by DeWayne Reeves

Realistic Emini Trading Expectations

I have labored the past few months to create a series of videos which outline what I believe to be realistic potential for those with a desire to daytrade the S&P 500 Emini Futures. Today I have prepared a chart for you which begins with the opening bell. What you will see:

• Every trade setup
• Every entry both long and short
• The entry price as provided by our system "to the tick" (before the trade)
• The distance each trade moved (maximum potential)
• The trades that got stopped out (we only risk 2 points per trade)
• How we turn Maximum Potential into Realistic Net Potential

Before I get to the chart let's discuss realistic potential. The average true daily range for the S&P 500 Futures is 18 points. This number can be somewhat misleading, pull up a daily chart and you'll see exactly what I mean. We have had quite a few abnormal wide range days of late that skew the data to a degree. If you look left on your ATR scale, not long ago the ATR was closer to 13. No matter which number we use, it simply means that if you bought the absolute low of the session and sold at exactly the high of the session, that would be considered maximum potential.

Can we look at a chart after the fact and see that in fact it really did happen? Yes. Does that make it realistic potential? Not for me. How often have you bought the exact low of the day and then exited at the peak? If you've done it more than once then I want to take your class. It's a difficult task at best. So let's move in to the realm of what is realistic. Just as we can measure the average true range of a daily candle, we can also measure the swings of the market on an intra-day basis. The S&P rarely moves in a straight line. It channels back and forth whether it's in a uptrend, downtrend, or just trending water.

We do know that the "average" swing is 3-5 points. Does that allow for some swings to be 2 and others 9? It certainly does. However, armed with the knowledge of what an average swing looks like, we don't attempt to call the turn. Picking tops and bottoms can be risky business. Our approach is to allow a swing to get underway and simply scoop a few points out of the middle. Sound simple?

That's our motto:  Trading's Not Easy But It Can Be Simple!

Now for some, it's a little too simple. Let's do some simple math -

2 Points per day X $50 per point X 1 contract = $100

For the 1 contract trader I agree that's hardly living high on the hog. But what happens as that trader works his way up the food chain and becomes a 5 contract trader?

2 Points per day X $50 per point X 5 contracts = $500

Now that a little more appealing right? In fact, day in and day out with an average of 20 trading days per month that just might pay the mortgage and buy the groceries. Yes?

Perhaps a year or two or three goes buy and soon your confidence level is at a point where you calmly trade 10 contracts without breaking into a cold sweat. Can you picture that?

2 Points per day X $50 per point X 10 contracts = $1,000

Now that might pay the mortgage, buy the groceries and send Junior to college. However, I would be amiss if I didn't tell you this - Trading is risky and you can lose all your money!

Why is that? Why do we read such alarming statistics about the failure rate of traders? I believe it comes down to this very subject - Reasonable and Realistic Expectations.

I had to create 2 charts to get all of today's trades on them. The purpose of this chart is to point out the myriad of opportunities that each day brings. If you have a long bias or short bias then your opportunities will differ from the trader who is willing to trade in the direction of order flow whichever direction that happens to be.

One final thing to keep in mind, the more times per day you expose yourself to the market, the greater the risk. The best advice I can offer is to establish a daily goal and stick with it. That can be especially difficult for new traders. Ask yourself "How much money do I want to make today?" If the answer is "As much as I can", you have embarked on a journey that is both tortured and without end.

Observe the charts.

Understand the opportunities.

Establish Reasonable and Realistic Goals.

S&P 500 Emini Futures

Here are the trade setups from Tuesday May 29, 2012.

ES 05/29/12 (click to enlarge)

ES 05/29/12 Part 2 (click to enlarge)

Drop by the Live Trading Room and I'll show you these same charts with our indicators applied and answer any questions you have about realistic expectations.

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Emini Podcast for Tuesday 05/29/12

Emini Futures | Emini Podcast - Friday May 11, 2012

(QQQ)(DIA)(SPY)(GLD)(SLV)

To all the Mom's - Happy Mother's Day!

S&P 500 Emini Futures

Did you miss these trades?

ES Emini 04/23/12

ES Emini 04/30/12

ES Emini 05/02/12

ES Emini 05/03/12

ES Emini 05/06/12

ES Emini 05/07/12

ES Emini 05/08/12

ES Emini 05/09/12

Will You Miss The Next One?

Spend 1 Full Week In Our Live Emini Trading Room!

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Emini Podcast for Friday 05/11/12