Emini FuturesCast / The Daily Pod 07/27/11

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The perfect trade. The endless summer. And other romantic nonsense.

"I’ve missed more than 9,000 shots in my career. I’ve lost almost 300 games. 26 times I’ve been trusted to take the game winning shot and missed. I’ve failed over and over and over again in my life. And that is why I succeed."

- Michael Jordan

There's the perfect trade, the endless summer and a small yacht in the Bay of Your Choice all rolled into one big idea. Stop looking for the Holy Grail and embrace the Holy Fail. You may never become a Michael Jordan but that's how you become a trader.

White Candle Alert

We issued an alert last night and that's where it ended. The great white beast never appeared. In fact, once price dropped back below the CF_MA1 we had confirmation of a continuation on the hourly chart. Here we are 23 hours later, 23 points lower and the Watch is back on. Same drill. If you don't know the rules, take the Free Trial.

Last night our Partners had the opportunity, tools and knowledge to take at least part of the 23 point drop. Did you?

You must posses a genuine desire to learn and be willing to put in the time to acquire the skills. There is no easy money, free money, or get rich quick money in this business. There's a lot of sweat. A lot of trial and error. A lot of getting knocked down and having the fortitude to get back up. Do you think you have what it takes to become a trader? A real one? Call us 573-224-3366 or APPLY HERE!

On the Tweeter - follow us @CFRN

CFRN DeWayne Reeves

 

#emini #futures another example of a real time trade you might not take / sell YM 12,442. 12:17am PDT / let's talk http://t.co/0KEf1fw

22 hours ago Favorite Reply Delete

The above tweet went out some 200 points ago. I admit the target was only 100. Darn...

CFRN DeWayne Reeves

 

Downside on the YM is our next zone @ 12,345 / yes that's a 100 point drop. / We are currently accepting apps for someone to host Globex.

22 hours ago Favorite Reply Delete

E-Mini S&P 500: Free fallin’!

The E-Mini S&P 500 has slipped below that ever so important $1300.00 level! The earnings season which potentially can create a buying mindset really cannot seem to outweigh the concerns of the US losing their AAA credit rating and possibly defaulting on loan payments. The leadership in this country perhaps is the unspoken trigger for fear and anxiety as we draw toward the August 2nd deadline. The fact that the Washington Officials cannot reach any agreements to date have pressured the markets and will perhaps take their toll on the confidence in the US. So far, our Treasuries have held very well, but in the future, will our foreign neighbors desire the previously coveted US debt instruments or will they prefer other safe-haven instruments such as the Swiss Franc? For today, the US Treasury sold $12 billion 5-day cash management bills and $35 billion of the five-year notes. At this point, many analysts have thought that even if an agreement is reached in time that the US will still suffer a downgrade of at least one of the three credit reporting agencies. The three agencies are Fitch’s, Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s. It is a concern that foreign investors may move away from the US Dollar and purchase other currencies.   In light of the debt watch, poor economic reports and fruitless earnings, the E-Mini S&P 500 has little to take it up. The Advanced Durable Goods Report decreased -2.1% for June 2011. The lack of new orders is a disappointment as the manufacturing sector is viewed as the US stronghold of a sector. The Federal Reserve’s “Beige Book” is showing that the recovery is slowing.

The earnings were disappointing in the industrial and technology sectors! Emerson Electric Co. shares were down 6.7 % to $50.43.  Juniper Networks was down 21.1 % to $24.61 on profit warnings.  WellPoint Inc. was down 3.9 % to $70.70 despite better earnings. Caterpillar, Whirlpool, Pepsi and Ingersoll-Rand were all down on the day. On an optimistic note:  Boeing Co. was up 2.5 % to $71.91.  Dow Chemical Co. was up 3.2 % to $37.00. 

While the downslide in the E-Mini S&P 500 seems like the beginning to an end, it is only commonplace for the market to retrace. The markets cycle and the economic times of each country may cycle.  It is natural to be alarmed, but it is also wise to view the historical economic challenges of the US and to note the undaunted survival and strength of the nation. 

Thursday, we have Initial Jobless Claims at 7:30 AM CST.

I don't show Daily Charts often but here's 2 to give some thought to. The first one is a traditional candlestick chart. The second one has our CF_TC Indicator applied. Notice the White Candles. Both charts have the backbone of our indicator set the CF_MA1.

Thursday, what to expect! We are technically in sell mode on the Daily Chart! Thursday, we look for a possible inside to lower day! Today’s range was $1328.00 - $1298.00. The market settled at $1299.00.   Our comfort zone or point of control for this market appears to be $1315.00. Our anticipated potential range for Thursday’s trading could be $1310.00 - $1288.00. The market stays bearish below $1347.00.  The E-Mini S& P 500 may continue to free fall to $1267.00.

Leslie Burton
Senior Market Strategist

Podacst for Wednesday 07/27/11

Emini FuturesCast / The Daily Pod 07/26/11

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There's not enough white space on this page to hold everything we talked about on today's show. We did however, manage to squeeze it all into one podcast. 1hour:55minutes:41seconds of the very stuff that made us famous. Just click the headphones please.

The DUH Trade
On the show today, near the end... I pointed out the chart below. (live in real-time) I said "Tonight people will look at this chart and be amazed that they didn't take the trade."

Ladies and Gentlemen, I now present said chart for your viewing pleasure -

If you were there live, or listened to the podcast, I clearly stated that many would be amazed by their failure to pull the trigger. This post has nothing to do with pointing out that the trade worked (it did) it has everything to do with pointing out how easy it is for folks to sell you a bill of goods after the fact. Anyone seeing the above chart for the first time today will absolutely go "Duh, of course I would have taken that trade". Not so fast smarty pants. I had a room full of people who saw the trade right up until the tip of the yellow arrow and many of them did not take the trade. Are they dumb, or blind? No! Quite the opposite. We have some of the smartest folks on the net, pants or not. If you were not there when it happened, scroll your chart to the hard right edge and tell me you would have taken it. Would you? If so please post why in the comment section below. If NO, please post why not.

I already know why not. But I want to hear it from you. I spill my guts every day about my own human frailties. How about you man up and spill yours...... Oh I'm sorry. Did I catch you at a bad time?

It's OK. I'm only kidding. Whether you want to type in the little comment box or not, I at least got you thinking and that was my whole point. I want you to think about what you do and why you do it. When you're done, think about what you DON'T do and why you don't do it.

hmmmm...

I know. Freaky eh?

You're not dumb. You're not a bad trader. You're not naturally unlucky or born on the wrong day. You simply may have fallen into the "post-dictive trap". (David your royalty check is in the mail) That's right, post-dictive is the opposite of pre-dictive. You've probably heard of the latter. Well I have news for you. There's a very high probability that every trading program, methodolgy, indicator, scheme, scam,  or whatnot that you purchased in the past, used postdictive analysis to snare you. My goodness, every man has a little larceny in his heart but only when I entered the arena of trading did I see it exploited to its best and lowest use. It's like magic. And guess what........... We ALL fall for it at some point.

That's right. I said ALL.
(is he talking about himself? i think he is. ssshhh let him finish. ok)

I even fell for it in real-time. "Shut-up" they all said. No it's true. For a long time, in real time, I listened to a guru say "You might want to get out here if you're long" or "Consider getting out here if you're short" and I remember feeling like such an idiot because I was neither long nor short. Instead, I was sitting there with my hand in my lap just wishing I could only be half as clever as the guru.

<SNAP> when you awaken you will feel refreshed............

OK. I said all that to say this.

I pointed out the trade as it happened. Not before and not after. I said many people will have difficulty taking this trade. Many will wonder later why they didn't. The answer is quite simple. You're human and you've become accustomed to looking at charts after the fact. The only way to make money from historical charts is to land a job in Cramerica (aka CNBC) or become a system vendor.

What Michael and I along with our other guests want to show you, is how to look ahead. That's where the money is. Are you in this for the money or the love of the game? If you're not ashamed to say it's about the money, you should sign up for our next class -

Trade Fu'

Taught Here Daily

Call Sensei Sachs to arrange a free class.
573-224-3366

Dwain@CFRN.net

White Candle Alert

Before I dash I did promise the Twitter folks a chart. On the hourly we are on the watchtower. It's not here yet....... but we're watching. Once it prints I'll post a chart to the Tweeter.

We're on the backside of the ?   We have a ? We still need a ? And then a ?

If you can't answer those questions you need to take the FREE TRIAL!

Podcast for Tuesday 07/26/11

Emini FuturesCast / The Daily Pod 07/25/11

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Today was MONDAY! Verified. The good news is, despite dealing with the debt ceiling, the markets showed up for work on time and put in a full day. Did you? Or did the Monkey keep you too busy? We do encourage you to comment here on the blog regarding your Monkey or whatever else is on your mind. It's called community. We are a Community of Believers Who Trade For A Living. Do your part please. Give back, get involved, make a difference! We're only as strong as our weakest link...

White Candle Alert
Yes we did sound the alert last night just like we did on 2 other occasions last week. Here's how it played out -

The White Candle (potential change of trend) closed at 1335. The next candle opened at 1334.75. Over the next 3 hours the markets did a slow grind higher presenting a maximum profit potential of 5.5 points or $275.00 per contract. The market reversed from a Weekly Trading Zone (high of the day) and on Globex tonight we've already had a change of trend warning and a substantial drop.

Not everyone is comfortable trading an hourly chart. However, it does create a very nice backdrop for smaller time frame entries. We can teach you how to trade it but you have to bring your own patience.

Trade Fu'

Taught Here Daily

Call Sensei Sachs to arrange a free class.
573-224-3366

Dwain@CFRN.net

"You cannot create experience. You must undergo it."

- Albert Camus

Podcast for Monday 07/25/11

White Candle Watch In Effect

We are waiting for a White Candle to appear on the ES Hourly Chart. Once we have the "Poential Change of Trend Warning" we will look for an opportuinty to Buy the Market based on our smaller time frame setups such as the 10k or 2100t.

Be patient, just like the last time, there is no rush.

See you at the open - https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/645596673

Sunday Night Lower Open On Globex Sets Stage For Rally

Last Thursday night we sent out charts and videos to prepare all our members for the upcoming potential drop in the market. We were very clear - "Don't fire until you see the whites of their candles" You've already seen the BEFORE picture here on the blog, on Facebook, and on the Tweeter. Right?

Now here's the AFTER picture-

click to enlarge(i'm tempted to say aftermath picture instead of just after because it really is all about the math which does all the heavy lifting behind the scenes that ultimately creates the white candle which unlike the mythical white iphone or white unicorn is indeed very real and does in fact translate into real trades and real money)

The beauty of that White Candle is that it requires no learning curve.

White = Potential Change of Trend

It really is that simple.

Could you simply trade the White Candle? YES

Do we have other indicators and time frames that help turn the White Candle into a high probability trade? YES

Want to trade the next White Candle? Click Here to put the White Candle on your desktop for 1 week. No obligation. No CC required. We show you everything we have for 1 full week. During that week if you choose to follow along and shadow our trades, keep in mind that past performance is no guarantee of future performance.

The stage is now set for a bottom on all markets including the Euro. We do look for higher prices this week and will tweet or post accordingly. If you would like to participate in this weeks FREE TRIAL we still have seats available.

We have new member on the CFRN Team - Dwain Sachs

If you have any questions about our Live Trading Room, our Training Program, or our Proprietary Indicator Set that works across all markets and time frames, give him a call at 573-224-3366 or send your questions to Dwain@CFRN.net

 

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