Emini FuturesCast / The Daily Pod 08/01/11
August 1, 2011 at 8:36 PM (QQQQ)(DIA)(SPY)(GLD)(SLV)
As Monday's go... this was almost a Tuesday. Almost. The Slingshot Ninja fired without a hitch last night but started to lose altitude at 1308 (no surprise). The Globex gap managed to hold though until the ISM numbers came out and down she came. Way down. Hard. In case you're new to the markets there's a word for that "Volatility". The term volatility indicates how much and how quickly the value of an investment, market, or market sector changes. Here's a 60 minute candle to give you an idea -
That's a 28 point drop in 60 minutes. That's a weeks work if you're on the right side of the trade. True volatility has been a missing ingredient from the S&P recipe for a long time. For veteran traders it's like trying make Chili without any chilies. With proper risk management volatility becomes your best friend. Without it, you're in the midst of a "going out of business" sale. Learn to manage it, learn to love it, and pray it's back to stay.
At the open of the show we suggested the S&P having found at least a temporary floor should reach up to test the 1280/1281 area.
If you're watching the hourly on Globex this is not a Long Set-up. Not yet. The potential for failure here is palpable until we see some white and/or some blue. Don't jump the gun. Be patient and let the trade come to you. Don't rule out the possibility of a continuation to the downside.
If you're a Dow Emini Trader (YM) the fields were ripe with opportunity today in both directions. Here's just one example to the upside with a maximum profit potential of 49 points with a 7 point draw down.
E-Mini S&P 500: US delays risk downgrade, fears may not be allayed!
The US could lose its cherished AAA credit rating even if the deadlines are met on the debt ceiling borrowing increases! Fitch’s, Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s could still downgrade the US even if a default has been averted. Steps involved on the US debt deal would rollout over years to accommodate the spending cuts necessary to compensate for the debt deficit. While the market remains nervous regarding a possible downgrade, we must bear in mind Japan’s downgrade of years past and remember that they may enjoy low interest loans. The Treasuries should remain popular regardless of a possible downgrade and the sale of our bonds represents our debt bought up by foreign interest as still one of the most secure safe-haven products to invest in. It simply may make it more expensive to pay our debts. A potential default would mean that our Federal Government would not have money to cut pay checks to government employees, social security checks would be skipped and the US would suffer a major setback. While it seems that a default should be averted by our leading officials, the results would be devastating.
The US growth took a step back today as the Institute for Supply Management reported the index of factory activity was down to 50.9 from 55.3 in June. The expectations were for 54.9. US Construction Spending was up 0.2 % in June.
Even if the deadlines are met and the bill is passed, we still may encounter tax reform issues to resurface at later intervals. This is only the first round, the years to follow will be fraught with the same problems and haggling.
Tuesday, we have the US Personal Income due out at 7:30 AM CST.
Tuesday, what to expect! We are technically still in sell mode on the Daily Chart! Tomorrow, we anticipate an inside day as the severe moves of today should tone down as reality sets in. Today’s range was $1309.75 - $1270.25. The market settled at $1279.75. Our comfort zone or point of control for this market appears to be $1289.00. Our anticipated potential range for Tuesday’s trading could be $1308.50 - $1278.50. The market stays bearish below $1335.00. The E-Mini S& P 500 may continue to free fall to $1237.00 without resolve.
Leslie Burton
Senior Market Strategist
Final note:
If you're short the Euro (6E) off the Weekly Trading Zone and have not yet taken or locked in profit, consider doing so. You do not want this to turn in to a loser. There is of course the option to move your stop to break-even or better and just go to bed with a free trade on.
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