Weekly Zones defined the early range and the hourly chart put us in place for a beautiful short trade. Check the tweet feed for the video. Below I will post the updated video which will also appear on the Tweeter. After tonight we will probably swith from Twitvid to our Vimeo account. I had no idea you had to watch a 60 second commercial to see my humble 2 minute video. I'll fix that.
E-Mini S&P 500: Expectations have their limitations!
The E-Mini S&P 500 is on a teeter totter of factors that can push the market either way! Expectations for a decision from our US Government on the debt ceiling issues weigh on the market as concerns spring up toward the August 2nd deadline. While Fitch’s rating service feels the likelihood of a default is slight, there is still nothing completed on the $3.75 billion budget deal. There are three major credit reporting agencies, Fitch’s, Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s. Positive earnings reports had given the boost that the market needed for a relief rally yesterday as the US June Housing Starts were up 14.6 % to a seasonally adjusted 629,000 units, which was the highest level since January. Building Permits were up 2.5 % which was the highest since December. Multi-family units were up 30.4 %. Today, the National Association of Realtors reported that Sales fell 0.8 % last month to an annual rate of 4.77 million units. This is the third month that this fell and the lowest since last November. Canceled contracts were up 16 % well above the average 9 – 10%. While we are in the midst of earnings season, the reports have been mixed. There are some stellar reports such as Apple Inc. with their increased sales of iPads and iPhones had reported revenue up to $28.57 billion for the third quarter overshooting the analysts’ estimates of $24.99 billion. Apple Inc. today was up 3.3 % to $389.21. Yahoo Inc. was down 7.6 % to $13.48. Microsoft Corp. was down 1.7 % to $27.06. US Bancorp was up 4.4 % to $26.14. United Tech shares were down 2.3 % to $86.80. Textron was up 8.2 % to $23.93. AMR Corp was up 2.4 % to $5.05. Boeing Co. was up 2.7 % to $72.43. Intel Corp. reported the June quarter to be up 22 % to $13.1 billion, well above expectations. Intel shares traded down 1.52 % to $22.64.
The Euro Zone leaders are to meet on the debt resolution shortly and the options are not limited. The head of Austria's Central Bank Ewald Nowotny suggested that The European Central Bank may be willing to accept Greek bonds as collateral in the event of a short-term “selective default”. He went on to suggest that there are more options without necessarily having negative outcomes. It is thought that the Euro Zone may not be as reliant on the credit reporting agencies when dealing with the economic reforms. President Jean Claude Trichet and the 16 other Euro Zone leaders have usually experienced progress on each of their summits that have supported the Euro FX at $1.4100. The Euro Zone leaders are attempting to complete a second stimulus for Greece of about 110 euros but there still are issues that remain unresolved. The resolve will be welcomed by traders, but more importantly the performance of the Spanish and Italian bonds should also be considered.
When we deal with a variety of major issues in the marketplace, we cannot begin to anticipate the results of the decisions of nations and earnings/economic reports. The trader sentiment may find a comfort level in simply a healthy stock sector. Learning to trade off of the price action in the marketplace can potentially prevent emotional trading that has been a downfall for many a trader!
Thursday, we have US Initial Jobless Claims at 7:30 AM CST!
Thursday, what to expect! We are technically in sell mode on the Daily Chart! Thursday, we look for a possible outside day! Today’s range was $1329.75 - $1319.25. The market settled at $1321.25. Our comfort zone or point of control for this market appears to be $1322.50. Our anticipated potential range for Thursday’s trading could be $1338.50 - $1300.50. The market stays bearish below $1343.00. We could cover a wide range as traders may see a variety of factors coming into the market tomorrow. We intend to be prepared to take the trend changes for short day trades!
Senior Market Strategist