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« Emini FuturesCast / The Daily Pod 07/05/11 | Main | Emini FuturesCast / The Daily Pod 06/30/11 »

Emini FuturesCast / The Daily Pod  07/01/11


Q:Is it Spring in Pamplona, 113 degrees in Phoenix, or are the Bulls just Smokin' Hot on Wall Street?

A:It's not spring in Spain, it will be 116 degrees tomorrow, and the Bulls are about to get Smoked Like Salmon. Just ask any Bear...

All I really know is this -
"We are definitely headed higher unless we start to break down."

Seriously? Yes, according to the guys on TV. What's even stranger is the fact that some people actually attempt to trade off such vaguery. Are you guilty? Admit it now and feel better soon. Seriously.

Forecasting is not my forte'. Not in the bigger sense. My Spidey Senses tell me not what will happen, but more what is happening. If the market is climbing I want to be a buyer. If the market is falling I want to be a seller. How do I know which is happening? Simple...

When you want to know if it's raining what do you do? You could turn on the TV, or you could just stick your head out the window. If it comes back wet, either it's raining or you have some really bad pigeon karma to deal with.

Get my drift?

I have great respect for those who can predict. My friend and daily guest for 4+ years Mr. David Williams excels in this area. I don't. My natural skills lean towards spotting that which is right in front of me today. Where do your skills lean? Do you know? I encourage you to play to your strength and not your weakness. If you find yourself saying things like "Every time I do (this), (that) happens." Without totally inspecting the junk in your trunk, let me kindly suggest from afar, that you simply stop doing (this) whatever it is, and (that) won't keep happening. It's a simple human equation but you have to admit that in an imperfect world it makes perfect sense. Amen?

Now somebody way in the back just yelled, "Can you break it down for a brother?"

The answer is yes. Let me show you what happened on Feb 3rd, no I think March 7th shows it better, no..no... let's look at April 5th because that truly defines what I want to show you. HOOOOOEEEYYY!

How 'bout I show you a real trade with real money from TODAY!

No back testing, curve fitting, data fetching nonsense. Just a real trade from the belly of TODAY!

It's hard to mesmerise the masses with tales of today because it just happened. Using today as an example always helps to separate the stuff in the trunk. Junk or Jubilee? You decide.

Now as you watch the pendulum swing back and forth, back and forth, I want you to focus on your breath, that's right, nice and easy, in and out, do not be startled by what you are about to see...

Here we go -

Click to enlargeSweet huh? We knew the market was moving higher and we wanted to be buyers. Our indicators gave us the green flag and price action put us into the trade. What could be easier? Did you know 12742 was a keen place to get long ahead of a 61 point rally? Neither did we. We simply knew that the market was climbing and that 12742 was a beautiful place to be long. If you disagree with that please leave now before I call security. Just kidding. You can stay. But they're watching you...

So let's talk about those 61 points with the non-dissenters. What's that really worth?

1 YM Point = $5.00  (Dow Emini)

61 X $5.00 = $305.00 on 1 contract

If you want to know what it's worth on 10 contracts I'll let you do that math.

Looking at the chart above you may have noticed it said "The Big Stop-Owski". Why?

We put that specific trade on just as we were heading into break today. We break for 30 minutes between sessions. We moved our Stop to plus 1 point so that no matter what happened while we were away, the trade would at least pay for itself and we would enjoy the knowledge that we had a free opportunity for higher prices. Follow me? Here's the sadness. On break, price came back and stopped out our live trade with real money at plus 1 point. We risked nothing to make $305.00 per contract. Did we make $305.00 per contract. No, we got stopped out 1 point above our entry. The market paid our commissions with that 1 point. Had we been more aggressive or more attentive (no break) could we have managed the trade and the risk differently? Yes. Did we? No.

We don't claim to be better than the other guys, we just claim to be honest about what we do.

Now, I said all that to say this. This is the good part, this is what matters, the other stuff was just stuff and you should really listen up here. Turn off the music. Shut the door. Listen to what I am about to tell you. Or should I say, pay attention to what you are about to read? You get the point.

I've said much to pave the way to say little. This trade was the TRUE home-run.

What? One trade goes for 61 points and this trade goes for just over 10 and you call this the home run? Yep. I also call it the Slam Dunk. The Hole in One. The Touchdown. (i'm now out of sport's metaphors)

I know what your thinking... 10 points is nothing. I want to be a fancy pants trader and drive a fast car. OK. Good luck with that.

If you listen to today's broadcast we discuss this very dilemma. Let's turn those 10 points into real dollars first -

10 Points X $5.00 = $50.00 on 1 contract.

If you make $50.00 ten times on 1 contract you can now trade 2 and the $50 becomes $100. Get that right 5 times and you can trade 3. Follow the math on your own.

Trading is risky and you can and will lose all your money unless you aggressively manage the risk. Period.

I showed you a trade that ran for 61 points.

I showed you how and why I got stopped out of that trade at better than break even.

I showed you how you could have walked away from the trade a legend in your own mind and on paper.

You have to make a decision.

You either follow the smoke and mirrors, or learn how to trade.

It's entirely up to you.




Go listen to the Podcast. We talk specifically about how much money you can make with no risk (1.5% annually). We also discuss the other side of the equation......... and the risk involved. Click the headphones above or the link below.

 Happy 4th of July from everyone at CFRN


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Podcast for Friday 07/01/11

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