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Emini Futures Trading / Will The Market Ever Drop Again?

I've officially given up my vainglorious quest to be the smartest guy in the room. Today, I'm quietly content just knowing which one he is. Here's what he thinks...

This one is pretty smart as well -

A Farewell to 2010
2010 was an interesting year to say the least. I’m sure many are happy to see it go and some will miss it. On a personal level, it was a very difficult year as it was a year where loved ones were lost. On other levels, it was a year that presented many challenges in a wide range of areas – politically, socially, economically, etc. However, from a business perspective, we are grateful as 2010 was a good year for us and for our clients. We finished the year at just above +29% for our clients net after all fees and we are up over 50% from the all-time stock market high in October 2007. We are always thankful to be able to start a year with a positive thrust. We wish you a Happy, Healthy and Prosperous 2011. GJ

One of the major thrusts of my Alerts is discussing the cycle that we follow as human beings – specifically, the sequence of events in the cycle. The ‘sequence of events’ tell us where we are in the cycle so we know what is next to come. We want to know this so we can prepare for what is coming as opposed to being taken by surprise. Investors were caught off guard at the valuation market top in 2000 and the all-time high in 2007. The periods that followed those two tops made the past decade The Worst Performing Decade in US History. My experience in sharing that with people generally brings nothing more than a glazed look. Frankly, it is information that merits significantly more in terms of a response.

The worst performing decade in US history carries a big message. Allow me to put this into perspective. The majority of the American populace has grown up in the best of times. Ever since my childhood, I learned and believed the USA was the biggest and best in everything. As a child, ‘made in Japan’ equated to junk. Now, ‘made in China’ frequently equates to junk. I noticed that equation didn’t last. In the case of Japan, that “junk” miraculously turned into top quality products i.e. Toyota, Sony, etc. The quality of these products was better than what the US was producing. This resulted in an upward explosion in the purchase of Japanese products, an overwhelming balance of trade surplus, and trade leadership for Japan.

I think we can see a very similar progression with China. If you go back to the 1920s, you could see the same process unfolding in the United States. It is a very long process. In the case of the United States, the growth and innovation began in the late 1800s with the Industrial Revolution. In the 1920s the USA was the only country that could efficiently and effectively mass produce. This turned into a very favorable balance of trade, trade leadership and the Roaring Twenties. It was followed by the Great Depression and then the USA moved into a relentless position of world leadership and dominance that lasted decades. Hence, it was the reason I learned as a child that the USA was the best at virtually everything. This was the message that the Baby Boomers received as children and what we learned in school. It is the same message that we passed on to our children. So, it is not surprising the communication of THE WORST PERFORMING DECADE IN US HISTORY doesn’t get the reaction it deserves. We have been brainwashed … and we have passed the message on.

Anyway, my point is that something very major has happened in the USA and it is as subtle as an undetected cancer … probably because it is an undetected cancer of sorts. Somewhere along the line, things have changed … and, due to our delusion, we have missed it. Somewhere along the line we have missed that our #1 ranking in education, for example, is currently #18 … and falling – and in the area of science, our prior top ranking has fallen to 29th … and falling. Somewhere … somehow … we are no longer #1 in everything. In fact, in many things, we have taken a tumble like we have in education. Gee, I wonder if there may be a connection?

The leadership and subsequent decline of countries is a normal and natural cyclical process. In my view, the USA peaked in 1970. That’s one year after we had our last REAL budget surplus. Many years later, President Clinton claimed he had a surplus, but he’s such a big kidder – he forgot to tell us that “off budget items” was a term he created to remove certain items from the budget so it would appear he had a surplus (he’s clever, he was a Rhodes scholar). Anyway, in 1970, we were financially sound; General Motors was the largest corporation in the world; we had our peak production in oil; and we actually were #1 in just about everything...  Garrett Jones Special Alert

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